Number 15

In La Primitiva under the 6/49 + 1/49 · Oct 1985 – Jan 2013 rules — 2,558 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).

319times drawn · chance expected 313 +0.35σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number

8.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

40longest completed wait · 86% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 319 times in 2,558 draws against 313.2 expected, +0.35σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 43 times, counted separately.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 319 times in 2,558 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 40 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest51 · chance 51.8
2nd smallest126 · chance 121.0
3rd smallest95 · chance 101.4
4th smallest38 · chance 38.0
5th smallest8 · chance 6.3
6th smallest1 · chance 0.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 33.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

25 36 13 29 10 12

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2012-12-13	2	2nd	13 15 26 39 41 43
2012-12-06	7	5th	4 10 12 14 15 29
2012-11-10	9	4th	3 10 12 15 21 46
2012-10-11

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.

2010-09-04	8	2nd	2 15 27 33 45 49
2010-08-07	2	3rd	10 13 15 20 28 30
2010-07-31	9	2nd	13 15 24 27 29 43
2010-07-01	1	2nd	14 15 29 30 32 43
2010-06-26	1	3rd	6 12 15 19 33 43
2010-06-24	3	3rd	1 12 15 21 26 41
2010-06-12	3	3rd	1 8 15 20 25 36
2010-06-03	3	2nd	13 15 17 24 33 41
2010-05-22	1	3rd	5 12 15 39 48 49
2010-05-20	15	4th	5 7 9 15 22 46
2010-03-27	1	3rd	1 5 15 23 25 28
2010-03-25	11	3rd	2 14 15 17 23 48
2010-02-13	12	2nd	6 15 17 19 20 30
2010-01-02	12	3rd	1 4 15 24 43 48
2009-11-21	4	2nd	14 15 17 21 42 48
2009-11-07	5	1st	15 30 33 40 47 48
2009-10-22	1	1st	15 17 30 33 42 44
2009-10-17	5	2nd	3 15 31 44 46 49
2009-10-01	6	2nd	5 15 20 29 38 39
2009-09-10	6	6th	7 10 11 13 14 15
2009-08-20	14	2nd	9 15 24 36 38 39
2009-07-02	17	2nd	2 15 24 29 41 42
2009-05-02	7	4th	4 7 11 15 16 49
2009-04-09	7	2nd	6 15 27 35 37 47
2009-03-14	17	2nd	1 15 28 34 44 45
2009-01-15	22	4th	2 4 12 15 17 41
2008-10-30	2	4th	1 6 11 15 38 40
2008-10-23	12	2nd	3 15 19 29 42 49
2008-09-11	2	2nd	3 15 22 24 33 39
2008-09-04	23	3rd	4 13 15 28 30 39
2008-06-14	20	5th	1 3 11 14 15 18
2008-04-05	4	3rd	3 7 15 29 36 40
2008-03-22	8	5th	1 3 10 14 15 45
2008-02-23	1	4th	9 12 13 15 37 39
2008-02-21	5	3rd	5 9 15 16 35 41
2008-02-02	7	1st	15 19 30 36 42 45
2008-01-10	13	2nd	3 15 33 38 48 49
2007-11-24	12	1st	15 24 29 34 35 47
2007-10-13	20	3rd	4 6 15 22 27 44
2007-08-04	4	4th	1 12 13 15 36 43
2007-07-21	5	1st	15 17 18 36 41 46
2007-07-05	13	3rd	10 13 15 32 47 49
2007-05-19	11	4th	4 9 12 15 20 44
2007-04-12	27	2nd	13 15 22 23 39 45
2007-01-06	8	1st	15 18 19 30 38 39
2006-12-09	5	2nd	6 15 32 41 43 48
2006-11-23	2	4th	2 10 13 15 24 36
2006-11-16	2	2nd	14 15 29 32 35 40
2006-11-09	8	1st	15 20 28 32 38 41
2006-10-12	20	2nd	7 15 20 23 41 44
2006-08-03	2	2nd	4 15 16 19 44 46
2006-07-27	5	2nd	12 15 21 31 37 39
2006-07-08	6	1st	15 29 32 34 35 40
2006-06-17	8	3rd	9 10 15 21 25 49
2006-05-20	7	3rd	1 12 15 19 35 36
2006-04-27	1	2nd	3 15 17 32 36 45
2006-04-22	10	5th	2 6 10 14 15 41
2006-03-18	14	3rd	5 14 15 26 45 46
2006-01-28	3	2nd	1 15 23 25 32 34
2006-01-19	25	1st	15 17 25 26 33 43
2005-10-22	9	4th	3 10 14 15 25 30
2005-09-22	4	2nd	13 15 20 42 47 49
2005-09-08	3	3rd	5 9 15 26 35 47
2005-08-27	4	1st	15 25 39 42 44 46
2005-08-13	2	2nd	2 15 16 21 22 43
2005-08-06	2	2nd	3 15 18 28 37 45
2005-07-30	12	3rd	7 14 15 18 47 49
2005-06-18	11	1st	15 16 20 30 32 42
2005-05-12	10	3rd	10 14 15 30 36 39
2005-04-07	24	3rd	6 13 15 31 40 43
2005-01-13	23	4th	3 7 9 15 20 42
2004-10-23	1	3rd	2 3 15 38 41 45
2004-10-21	7	3rd	3 13 15 26 29 49
2004-09-25	10	2nd	14 15 18 21 34 38
2004-08-21	2	1st	15 21 26 42 44 49
2004-08-14	2	3rd	1 12 15 33 39 41
2004-08-07	9	3rd	4 13 15 29 40 42
2004-07-08	5	3rd	5 11 15 19 25 44
2004-06-19	14	2nd	9 15 20 28 42 43
2004-05-01	18	3rd	1 5 15 22 25 28
2004-02-28	4	1st	15 20 25 31 37 49
2004-02-14	3	3rd	8 13 15 39 41 46
2004-02-05	6	3rd	6 14 15 20 29 36
2004-01-15	3	4th	4 9 12 15 29 45
2004-01-03	3	3rd	9 10 15 16 25 45
2003-12-25	19	3rd	10 11 15 24 41 47
2003-10-18	9	2nd	8 15 17 22 28 46
2003-09-18	2	1st	15 23 26 28 36 40
2003-09-11	21	3rd	13 14 15 29 44 46
2003-06-28	1	2nd	1 15 31 37 40 43
2003-06-26	1	3rd	9 11 15 17 35 38
2003-06-21	11	1st	15 23 31 38 46 47
2003-05-15	4	4th	3 4 8 15 29 36
2003-05-01	3	2nd	10 15 16 29 33 41
2003-04-19	1	1st	15 28 30 34 46 47
2003-04-17	9	1st	15 23 24 26 33 47
2003-03-15	2	2nd	13 15 29 32 36 49
2003-03-08	15	2nd	1 15 37 38 48 49
2003-01-16	1	3rd	12 14 15 16 25 26
2003-01-11	1	2nd	3 15 16 26 44 45
2003-01-09	11	2nd	9 15 16 20 23 25
2002-11-30	4	1st	15 21 29 43 44 45
2002-11-16	9	1st	15 20 22 35 40 42
2002-10-17	5	2nd	8 15 16 18 35 41
2002-09-28	4	3rd	8 10 15 27 44 46
2002-09-14	2	3rd	6 12 15 35 42 49
2002-09-07	9	1st	15 23 27 39 45 48
2002-08-08	27	3rd	5 6 15 22 32 49
2002-05-04	16	1st	15 22 24 26 30 40
2002-03-09	7	2nd	11 15 23 27 31 37
2002-02-14	6	2nd	7 15 18 25 29 48
2002-01-24	1	2nd	8 15 22 26 31 36
2002-01-19	3	2nd	1 15 23 32 37 41
2002-01-10	13	2nd	14 15 16 25 26 30
2001-11-24	11	1st	15 18 28 32 33 49
2001-10-18	9	4th	2 4 5 15 29 33
2001-09-15	6	3rd	3 9 15 23 38 43
2001-08-25	8	3rd	11 12 15 20 27 38
2001-07-28	2	2nd	12 15 24 27 37 42
2001-07-21	7	3rd	12 14 15 34 41 44
2001-06-28	3	1st	15 18 23 30 34 41
2001-06-16	4	3rd	10 11 15 30 31 48
2001-06-02	6	3rd	4 7 15 17 29 33
2001-05-12	14	2nd	5 15 17 32 44 49
2001-03-24	1	2nd	12 15 25 41 45 49
2001-03-22	4	3rd	9 10 15 42 44 49
2001-03-08	3	3rd	5 13 15 27 40 42
2001-02-24	1	2nd	2 15 17 21 34 40
2001-02-22	3	3rd	3 11 15 19 38 48
2001-02-10	5	3rd	4 6 15 18 22 23
2001-01-25	3	2nd	10 15 20 30 37 45
2001-01-13	9	4th	1 9 13 15 42 45
2000-12-14	3	3rd	2 10 15 26 27 29
2000-12-02	21	2nd	12 15 21 32 36 43
2000-09-21	11	2nd	6 15 22 42 46 48
2000-08-12	3	2nd	1 15 20 33 37 49
2000-08-03	5	2nd	3 15 18 19 34 46
2000-07-15	6	3rd	1 7 15 24 25 42
2000-06-24	18	1st	15 22 28 36 44 46
2000-04-22	5	3rd	3 12 15 25 32 49
2000-04-06	2	4th	4 10 13 15 22 30
2000-03-30	11	2nd	5 15 31 42 45 47
2000-02-19	4	1st	15 31 32 35 38 44
2000-02-05	2	2nd	14 15 18 19 45 49
2000-01-29	5	3rd	10 11 15 19 38 41
2000-01-13	2	2nd	5 15 31 36 45 47
2000-01-06	7	1st	15 19 29 31 40 46
1999-12-11	5	1st	15 16 18 23 30 48
1999-11-25	17	2nd	11 15 17 22 23 49
1999-09-25	8	2nd	1 15 19 21 24 34
1999-08-28	15	2nd	8 15 16 23 38 39
1999-07-08	11	3rd	9 10 15 30 36 38
1999-05-29	4	2nd	6 15 30 33 42 46
1999-05-15	1	2nd	1 15 21 29 31 39
1999-05-13	5	3rd	1 7 15 24 26 48
1999-04-24	13	2nd	8 15 16 37 38 43
1999-03-11	31	1st	15 22 26 27 35 40
1998-11-21	2	2nd	4 15 17 21 32 34
1998-11-14	4	2nd	10 15 31 36 42 44
1998-10-31	8	4th	6 7 8 15 21 47
1998-10-03	2	2nd	12 15 19 22 34 37
1998-09-26	3	2nd	12 15 31 33 34 45
1998-09-17	2	4th	4 6 11 15 17 24
1998-09-10	13	2nd	1 15 20 37 38 45
1998-07-25	16	2nd	9 15 19 32 33 38
1998-05-30	23	2nd	14 15 16 25 26 45
1998-03-12	2	3rd	8 13 15 32 36 42
1998-03-05	1	3rd	12 13 15 21 37 43
1998-02-28	3	4th	2 6 14 15 17 29
1998-02-19	6	2nd	3 15 20 23 27 33
1998-01-29	1	3rd	3 7 15 26 37 44
1998-01-24	3	3rd	7 14 15 30 31 38
1998-01-15	6	3rd	8 14 15 16 22 25
1997-12-25	4	2nd	3 15 26 30 34 47
1997-12-11	18	3rd	5 6 15 30 40 48
1997-10-09	14	2nd	10 15 17 25 27 47
1997-08-21	7	1st	15 20 21 24 26 28
1997-07-26	19	2nd	10 15 23 27 28 29
1997-05-22	6	5th	1 4 10 12 15 32
1997-05-01	4	2nd	13 15 25 30 37 43
1997-04-17	22	4th	5 6 8 15 25 46
1997-01-30	9	5th	3 4 11 12 15 31
1996-12-28	13	3rd	3 10 15 32 38 49
1996-11-14	10	4th	2 3 5 15 28 32
1996-10-10	8	3rd	6 11 15 29 35 47
1996-09-12	40	3rd	3 14 15 30 38 48
1996-04-25	35	2nd	1 15 21 30 40 47
1995-12-23	25	2nd	5 15 17 20 24 29
1995-09-28	1	2nd	10 15 36 38 44 45
1995-09-23	6	2nd	1 15 24 33 40 41
1995-09-02	27	2nd	4 15 17 20 25 32
1995-06-01	13	4th	2 13 14 15 33 36
1995-04-15	4	4th	4 6 13 15 21 48
1995-04-01	1	2nd	3 15 18 29 43 47
1995-03-30	8	1st	15 25 43 44 46 48
1995-03-02	4	2nd	1 15 19 26 46 47
1995-02-16	1	2nd	5 15 17 22 32 40
1995-02-11	2	3rd	5 11 15 19 29 32
1995-02-04	11	3rd	6 10 15 16 38 43
1994-12-29	1	2nd	3 15 18 36 40 44
1994-12-24	3	3rd	2 8 15 27 34 39
1994-12-15	6	2nd	2 15 25 34 35 36
1994-11-24	1	2nd	8 15 20 46 47 48
1994-11-19	7	1st	15 18 23 27 32 41
1994-10-27	6	2nd	9 15 27 32 47 49
1994-10-06	1	1st	15 22 26 29 33 35
1994-10-01	6	4th	3 10 12 15 26 33
1994-09-10	16	2nd	1 15 20 32 41 48
1994-07-16	1	2nd	11 15 26 33 38 45
1994-07-14	2	3rd	12 14 15 25 43 47
1994-07-07	6	2nd	8 15 17 20 29 36
1994-06-16	4	2nd	4 15 29 39 42 43
1994-06-02	1	3rd	5 6 15 20 23 27
1994-05-28	14	4th	10 11 13 15 25 29
1994-04-09	12	2nd	6 15 19 39 43 46
1994-02-26	6	2nd	1 15 22 33 35 41
1994-02-05	4	3rd	3 14 15 31 47 48
1994-01-22	3	2nd	9 15 16 22 34 36
1994-01-13	38	3rd	3 13 15 16 39 43
1993-09-02	3	3rd	7 10 15 18 19 21
1993-08-21	4	3rd	10 11 15 21 39 46
1993-08-07	3	1st	15 16 20 26 31 41
1993-07-29	19	4th	4 7 12 15 30 39
1993-05-22	9	2nd	12 15 21 25 42 46
1993-04-22	8	4th	7 9 13 15 40 47
1993-03-25	15	4th	4 7 13 15 19 44
1993-01-30	2	3rd	4 10 15 22 25 47
1993-01-23	5	3rd	5 6 15 27 36 47
1993-01-07	1	4th	7 10 12 15 20 36
1993-01-02	18	2nd	7 15 19 28 29 36
1992-10-31	2	2nd	6 15 16 18 24 49
1992-10-24	2	3rd	12 13 15 19 21 48
1992-10-17	6	1st	15 20 27 40 45 49
1992-09-26	3	2nd	10 15 29 35 44 46
1992-09-17	10	3rd	13 14 15 29 39 41
1992-08-13	8	2nd	10 15 16 17 22 39
1992-07-16	11	1st	15 19 21 30 31 44
1992-06-06	4	3rd	8 11 15 23 25 38
1992-05-23	8	3rd	4 5 15 21 25 39
1992-04-25	7	1st	15 16 17 39 41 47
1992-04-02	5	2nd	4 15 24 27 39 41
1992-03-14	4	1st	15 25 26 29 33 44
1992-02-29	6	3rd	5 9 15 30 31 37
1992-02-08	3	3rd	7 14 15 29 31 49
1992-01-30	22	2nd	13 15 18 29 30 36
1991-11-14	2	2nd	7 15 23 36 37 45
1991-11-07	14	2nd	8 15 16 18 22 34
1991-09-19	4	4th	1 9 10 15 24 36
1991-09-05	2	2nd	6 15 23 26 41 47
1991-08-29	3	1st	15 17 20 23 41 48
1991-08-17	1	1st	15 17 23 27 28 42
1991-08-15	1	2nd	14 15 26 31 36 43
1991-08-10	1	5th	1 7 8 12 15 18
1991-08-08	1	4th	4 10 13 15 35 37
1991-08-03	7	2nd	1 15 20 27 28 34
1991-07-11	15	3rd	5 13 15 25 42 49
1991-04-25	3	2nd	3 15 19 26 31 35
1991-04-04	16	3rd	3 4 15 20 34 38
1990-12-13	12	2nd	14 15 22 25 28 32
1990-09-20	13	3rd	7 13 15 19 28 46
1990-07-26	2	1st	15 17 37 39 41 43
1990-07-19	7	1st	15 18 22 30 37 40
1990-06-23	3	3rd	3 11 15 22 34 38
1990-06-14	12	1st	15 22 25 28 44 45
1990-04-19	17	2nd	6 15 22 28 32 33
1989-12-21	1	2nd	9 15 21 39 42 47
1989-12-14	25	2nd	11 15 18 19 20 21
1989-06-22	16	2nd	1 15 22 27 45 46
1989-03-02	19	3rd	9 13 15 29 41 46
1988-10-20	7	2nd	5 15 25 26 36 46
1988-09-01	8	3rd	7 12 15 18 22 46
1988-07-07	4	1st	15 22 25 28 34 44
1988-06-09	24	2nd	14 15 19 42 47 48
1987-12-24	7	4th	1 4 11 15 16 49
1987-11-05	2	2nd	5 15 22 35 37 49
1987-10-22	12	2nd	3 15 30 35 40 43
1987-07-30	3	2nd	4 15 27 37 47 49
1987-07-09	1	1st	15 16 19 32 36 38
1987-07-02	1	2nd	11 15 21 25 36 39
1987-06-25	17	3rd	12 13 15 22 24 44
1987-02-26	1	2nd	6 15 19 20 38 45
1987-02-19	2	3rd	2 14 15 17 22 37
1987-02-05	4	2nd	12 15 18 25 31 33
1987-01-08	15	2nd	13 15 16 21 33 46
1986-09-18	4	1st	15 25 31 35 36 43
1986-08-21	3	1st	15 21 22 30 34 37
1986-07-31	5	3rd	12 14 15 21 35 43
1986-06-26	2	3rd	9 14 15 25 36 38
1986-06-12	2	4th	1 8 13 15 32 36
1986-05-29	2	3rd	1 12 15 25 44 45
1986-05-15	10	3rd	5 10 15 30 36 37
1986-03-06	2	3rd	4 10 15 34 35 36
1986-02-20	12	1st	15 18 39 42 43 49
1985-11-21	5	2nd	6 15 35 44 46 48
1985-10-17	—	4th	3 11 13 15 34 35