In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/12 · since Mar 2022 rules — 479 draws, 2 from 1–12.
75times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.59σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 69% for any number
6.4average wait between appearances · chance says 6.0
28longest completed wait · 42% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 75 times in 479 draws against 79.8 expected, −0.59σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 75 times in 479 draws · average wait 6.4 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 11 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 12. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 2/12 tonight whatever it did last week.