Number 14

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.97σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

8.3average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

16longest completed wait · 54% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, −0.97σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 86 draws · average wait 8.3 draws · longest completed wait 16 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 1.1
2nd smallest3 · chance 3.3
3rd smallest4 · chance 3.6
4th smallest3 · chance 1.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.4
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 4 32 9 10 11

Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-19	13	3rd	4 11 14 20 28 39
2016-07-06	9	4th	1 6 13 14 16 32
2016-06-27	6	2nd	9 14 15 23 31 34

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.