Number 11

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.83σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

5.5average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

13longest completed wait · 89% chance of one at least that long

11 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.83σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 11, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws · average wait 5.5 draws · longest completed wait 13 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 3.1
2nd smallest6 · chance 6.5
3rd smallest5 · chance 4.7
4th smallest0 · chance 1.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

15 17 31 39 4 6

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-19	3	2nd	4 11 14 20 28 39
2016-07-16	1	3rd	6 10 11 30 37 39
2016-07-15	5	2nd	2 11 15 16 25 32

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.