Number 2

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.23σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 61% for any number

6.2average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

13longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

2 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.23σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 2, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 86 draws · average wait 6.2 draws · longest completed wait 13 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest12 · chance 12.2
2nd smallest2 · chance 1.8
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 39 17 34 13 23

Never drawn alongside 5 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 6 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 2 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-15	8	1st	2 11 15 16 25 32
2016-07-07	6	1st	2 12 13 16 18 39
2016-07-01	13	2nd	1 2 7 10 17 21

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.