Number 15

In Jackpot Triple Play under the 6/46 · Feb 2019 – Apr 2022 rules — 337 draws, 6 from 1–46 (an earlier era).

48times drawn · chance expected 44 +0.65σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 38% for any number

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.7

24longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 48 times in 337 draws against 44.0 expected, +0.65σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 48 times in 337 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest7 · chance 6.7
2nd smallest19 · chance 17.3
3rd smallest17 · chance 16.1
4th smallest5 · chance 6.6
5th smallest0 · chance 1.2
6th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

4 21 32 14 17 18

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 45 numbers; chance expects about 0.2 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 46. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-03-25	2	2nd	2 15 17 23 34 36
2022-03-18	4	3rd	11 12 15 36 43 46
2022-03-04	1	2nd	1 15 16 32 36

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/46 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-08-25	1	2nd	3 15 17 26 32 33
2020-08-21	8	2nd	2 15 17 21 31 34
2020-07-24	14	2nd	14 15 16 26 30 35
2020-06-05	2	3rd	4 14 15 26 41 45
2020-05-29	2	2nd	4 15 19 40 42 44
2020-05-22	13	3rd	6 7 15 17 20 46
2020-04-07	4	3rd	6 12 15 21 32 42
2020-03-24	6	1st	15 16 24 28 29 38
2020-03-03	2	1st	15 21 26 32 42 46
2020-02-25	24	3rd	4 8 15 29 35 41
2019-12-03	5	2nd	5 15 18 19 31 32
2019-11-15	8	4th	4 10 13 15 19 45
2019-10-18	2	1st	15 20 26 28 30 41
2019-10-11	15	4th	1 2 14 15 30 31
2019-08-20	8	3rd	4 12 15 32 36 46
2019-07-23	5	2nd	8 15 18 32 37 44
2019-07-05	5	3rd	10 11 15 19 21 45
2019-06-18	3	2nd	6 15 18 21 22 23
2019-06-07	2	2nd	4 15 22 31 32 33
2019-05-31	1	1st	15 22 23 27 30 40
2019-05-28	21	4th	1 4 7 15 16 40
2019-03-15	10	3rd	9 13 15 20 37 40
2019-02-08	2	3rd	9 14 15 21 33 39
2019-02-01	—	2nd	6 15 21 34 38 41