In Jackpot Triple Play under the 6/46 · Feb 2019 – Apr 2022 rules — 337 draws, 6 from 1–46 (an earlier era).
41times drawn · chance expected 44 −0.48σ
23draws waiting · a wait this long: 5% for any number
7.5average wait between appearances · chance says 7.7
28longest completed wait · 61% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 41 times in 337 draws against 44.0 expected, −0.48σ. Each draw is independent: after 23 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 41 times in 337 draws · average wait 7.5 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 23 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 45 numbers; chance expected about 0.5 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 46. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/46 tonight whatever it did last week.