In Mega Millions under the 5/52 + 1/52 · May 2002 – Jun 2005 rules — 324 draws, 5 from 1–52 (an earlier era).
25times drawn · chance expected 31 −1.16σ
5draws waiting · a wait this long: 67% for any number
13.2average wait between appearances · chance says 10.4
38longest completed wait · 44% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 25 times in 324 draws against 31.2 expected, −1.16σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 7 times, counted separately.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 25 times in 324 draws · average wait 13.2 draws · longest completed wait 38 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 8 of the other 51 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 52. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/52 tonight whatever it did last week.