Number 4

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 5 from 1–70 (an earlier era).

57times drawn · chance expected 55 +0.22σ

11draws waiting · a wait this long: 48% for any number

13.4average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

72longest completed wait · 25% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 57 times in 776 draws against 55.4 expected, +0.22σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 57 times in 776 draws · average wait 13.4 draws · longest completed wait 72 · waiting 11 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest48 · chance 47.5
2nd smallest8 · chance 9.1
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.4
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

64 39 46 58 10 1

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 3 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-02-25	5	1st	4 8 11 32 52
2025-02-07	7	1st	4 24 32 41 55
2025-01-14	25	1st	4 14 35 49 62
2024-10-18	31	1st	4 9

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.

2021-03-26	5	1st	4 25 37 46 67
2021-03-09	2	1st	4 33 46 58 65
2021-03-02	9	1st	4 8 13 34 64
2021-01-29	2	1st	4 44 58 59 70
2021-01-22	16	1st	4 26 42 50 60
2020-11-27	29	1st	4 10 27 35 58
2020-08-18	3	1st	4 18 26 27 58
2020-08-07	48	1st	4 44 53 64 70
2020-02-21	3	1st	4 7 13 16 60
2020-02-11	5	1st	4 6 32 52 64
2020-01-24	22	2nd	3 4 18 23 38
2019-11-08	3	2nd	3 4 10 39 58
2019-10-29	4	1st	4 9 17 27 39
2019-10-15	11	1st	4 12 14 35 70
2019-09-06	6	1st	4 11 13 19 31
2019-08-16	6	1st	4 14 24 26 46
2019-07-26	1	1st	4 6 11 43 48
2019-07-23	34	2nd	1 4 23 40 45
2019-03-26	5	1st	4 14 22 43 58
2019-03-08	13	1st	4 9 42 62 68
2019-01-22	3	1st	4 15 37 59 64
2019-01-11	9	1st	4 5 31 62 69
2018-12-11	1	1st	4 38 39 54 59
2018-12-07	16	1st	4 10 20 33 57
2018-10-12	23	1st	4 24 46 61 70
2018-07-24	23	3rd	1 2 4 19 29
2018-05-04	9	1st	4 5 10 12 18
2018-04-03	3	1st	4 29 39 42 62
2018-03-23	5	1st	4 8 23 53 59
2018-03-06	9	2nd	1 4 26 35 39
2018-02-02	10	2nd	1 4 14 17 40
2017-12-29	4	1st	4 10 18 28 62
2017-12-15	—	1st	4 12 36 44 57