In Mega Millions under the 5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017 rules — 420 draws, 5 from 1–75 (an earlier era).
24times drawn · chance expected 28 −0.78σ
14draws waiting · a wait this long: 41% for any number
16.9average wait between appearances · chance says 15.0
54longest completed wait · 45% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 24 times in 420 draws against 28.0 expected, −0.78σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 24 times in 420 draws · average wait 16.9 draws · longest completed wait 54 · waiting 14 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 20 of the other 74 numbers; chance expects about 20 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 75. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/75 tonight whatever it did last week.