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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

LotteryOracle

LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Big Sky Bonus · every number

17

Number 17

In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/28 · Apr 2016 – Nov 2016 rules — 227 draws, 4 from 1–28 (an earlier era).

4/31 + 1/16 · since Oct 20244/31 + 1/17 · Nov 2016 – Oct 20244/28 · Apr 2016 – Nov 2016
30times drawn · chance expected 32 −0.46σ
23draws waiting · a wait this long: 3% for any number
6.9average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
27longest completed wait · 41% chance of one at least that long
17 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 30 times in 227 draws against 32.4 expected, −0.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 23 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

17

Number 17, draw by draw

Drawn 30 times in 227 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 23 draws now

1 draws: 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-081 draws: 2016-04-08 to 2016-04-093 draws: 2016-04-09 to 2016-04-127 draws: 2016-04-12 to 2016-04-197 draws: 2016-04-19 to 2016-04-2611 draws: 2016-04-26 to 2016-05-073 draws: 2016-05-07 to 2016-05-1013 draws: 2016-05-10 to 2016-05-2327 draws: 2016-05-23 to 2016-06-192 draws: 2016-06-19 to 2016-06-214 draws: 2016-06-21 to 2016-06-2512 draws: 2016-06-25 to 2016-07-075 draws: 2016-07-07 to 2016-07-128 draws: 2016-07-12 to 2016-07-206 draws: 2016-07-20 to 2016-07-269 draws: 2016-07-26 to 2016-08-042 draws: 2016-08-04 to 2016-08-068 draws: 2016-08-06 to 2016-08-141 draws: 2016-08-14 to 2016-08-151 draws: 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-162 draws: 2016-08-16 to 2016-08-1816 draws: 2016-08-18 to 2016-09-0313 draws: 2016-09-03 to 2016-09-163 draws: 2016-09-16 to 2016-09-1913 draws: 2016-09-19 to 2016-10-026 draws: 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-085 draws: 2016-10-08 to 2016-10-138 draws: 2016-10-13 to 2016-10-212 draws: 2016-10-21 to 2016-10-23Still waiting — at least 23 draws since 2016-10-232016-04-072016-04-082016-04-092016-04-122016-04-192016-04-262016-05-072016-05-102016-05-232016-06-192016-06-212016-06-252016-07-072016-07-122016-07-202016-07-262016-08-042016-08-062016-08-142016-08-152016-08-162016-08-182016-09-032016-09-162016-09-192016-10-022016-10-082016-10-132016-10-212016-10-232016-04-032016-11-15

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 4 times2 draws: 4 times3 draws: 3 times4 draws: 1 time5 draws: 2 times6 draws: 2 times7 draws: 2 times8 draws: 3 times9 draws: 1 time10 draws: 0 times11 draws: 1 time12 draws: 1 time13 draws: 3 times14 draws: 0 times15 draws: 0 times16 draws: 1 time17 draws: 0 times18 draws: 0 times19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 times25 draws: 0 times26 draws: 0 times27 draws: 1 time28 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 17 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest2 · chance 1.7
  • 2nd smallest9 · chance 9.0
  • 3rd smallest14 · chance 13.5
  • 4th smallest5 · chance 5.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1624613257

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 27 numbers; chance expects about 1.0 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 17 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 28. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 17 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2016-10-2323rd451725
2016-10-2183rd10131727
2016-10-1353rd6121723
2016-10-0862nd16172326
← number 16Every numbernumber 18 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 17 is drawn with probability 4/28 tonight whatever it did last week.

2016-10-02
13
4th
171617
2016-09-1934th4111217
2016-09-16133rd6161721
2016-09-03163rd3131724
2016-08-1823rd1111728
2016-08-1614th561517
2016-08-1512nd10171825
2016-08-1483rd7161722
2016-08-0622nd8171820
2016-08-0493rd6131726
2016-07-2662nd16171924
2016-07-2083rd13161722
2016-07-1251st17182427
2016-07-07124th12317
2016-06-2542nd9171824
2016-06-2123rd6131724
2016-06-19272nd3172324
2016-05-23134th3101617
2016-05-1033rd7151722
2016-05-07113rd561725
The other 6 appearances
2016-04-2672nd16172025
2016-04-1973rd271725
2016-04-1232nd2172428
2016-04-0911st17192028
2016-04-0813rd7131718
2016-04-07—2nd15172225