Number 21

In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/28 · Apr 2016 – Nov 2016 rules — 227 draws, 4 from 1–28 (an earlier era).

31times drawn · chance expected 32 −0.27σ

14draws waiting · a wait this long: 13% for any number

6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

28longest completed wait · 38% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 31 times in 227 draws against 32.4 expected, −0.27σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 31 times in 227 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 14 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.4
2nd smallest9 · chance 4.5
3rd smallest14 · chance 14.1
4th smallest8 · chance 12.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 5 25 27 28 12

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 27 numbers; chance expected about 0.9 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 28. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-11-01	4	4th	9 19 20 21
2016-10-28	1	3rd	12 16 21 26
2016-10-27	1	4th	1 9 13 21
2016-10-26	10	2nd	1 21 22 23
2016-10-16	28	3rd	5 6 21 26
2016-09-18	1	4th	1 2 5 21
2016-09-17	1	3rd	12 13 21 27
2016-09-16	2	4th	6 16 17 21
2016-09-14	6	3rd	1 3 21 26
2016-09-08	26	4th	4 8 19 21
2016-08-13	10	4th	2 8 12 21
2016-08-03	10	3rd	3 15 21 25
2016-07-24	7	3rd	1 5 21 25
2016-07-17	16	2nd	7 21 23 25
2016-07-01	8	3rd	2 11 21 28
2016-06-23	3	2nd	5 21 22 28
2016-06-20	4	4th	2 9 12 21
2016-06-16	7	3rd	3 19 21 28
2016-06-09	1	2nd	5 21 25 27
2016-06-08	6	2nd	16 21 27 28
2016-06-02	2	2nd	18 21 22 27
2016-05-31	15	2nd	19 21 26 28
2016-05-16	1	3rd	19 20 21 24
2016-05-15	1	3rd	3 16 21 24

The other 7 appearances

2016-05-14	12	3rd	12 15 21 27
2016-05-02	2	2nd	14 21 23 25
2016-04-30	3	3rd	7 18 21 27
2016-04-27	7	3rd	1 20 21 25
2016-04-20	2	4th	7 9 10 21
2016-04-18	8	2nd	11 21 22 28
2016-04-10	—	3rd	5 7 21 26

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 4/28 tonight whatever it did last week.

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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

Big Sky Bonus · every number