In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/28 · Apr 2016 – Nov 2016 rules — 227 draws, 4 from 1–28 (an earlier era).
37times drawn · chance expected 32 +0.87σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 73% for any number
5.9average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
27longest completed wait · 48% chance of one at least that long
2 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 37 times in 227 draws against 32.4 expected, +0.87σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
2
Number 2, draw by draw
Drawn 37 times in 227 draws · average wait 5.9 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 27 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 28. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 4/28 tonight whatever it did last week.