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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
Drawn 16 times in 120 draws against 14.7 expected, +0.36σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 16 times in 120 draws · average wait 7.4 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 8 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-22 | 3 | 2nd | 11440424548 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2 | 3rd | 41214394449 |
| 2025-10-04 | 8 | 2nd | 31417202846 |
| 2025-09-06 | 2 | 4th | 41013141934 |
| 2025-08-30 | 3 | 3rd | 121314283844 |
| 2025-08-20 | 2 | 2nd | 41417182143 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27 | 2nd | 41426274041 |
| 2025-05-10 | 3 | 3rd | 7814404447 |
| 2025-04-30 | 23 | 2nd | 61419272845 |
| 2025-02-08 | 1 | 4th | 7810141926 |
| 2025-02-05 | 5 | 3rd | 71314151819 |
| 2025-01-18 | 15 | 1st | 141819224246 |
| 2024-11-27 | 3 | 1st | 141622364849 |
| 2024-11-16 | 3 | 4th | 245142027 |
| 2024-11-06 | 11 | 2nd | 41418253237 |
| 2024-09-28 | — | 2nd | 101416222432 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.