Number 15

In SuperEnalotto under the 6/90 + 1/90 · Dec 1997 – Jul 2009 rules — 1,425 draws, 6 from 1–90 (an earlier era).

87times drawn · chance expected 95 −0.85σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 76% for any number

16.3average wait between appearances · chance says 15.0

59longest completed wait · 80% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 87 times in 1,425 draws against 95.0 expected, −0.85σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 20 times, counted separately.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 87 times in 1,425 draws · average wait 16.3 draws · longest completed wait 59 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest41 · chance 36.2
2nd smallest37 · chance 35.7
3rd smallest8 · chance 12.9
4th smallest1 · chance 2.1
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

25 33 51 82 3 37

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 89 numbers; chance expects about 0.7 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 90. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2009-06-18	41	1st	15 27 31 52 74 77
2009-03-14	25	2nd	10 15 46 51 65 75
2009-01-15	2	2nd	8 15 24 25 44 55

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/90 tonight whatever it did last week.

2005-10-08	19	1st	15 25 58 61 83 86
2005-08-25	3	2nd	7 15 33 40 51 64
2005-08-18	13	2nd	3 15 49 65 70 72
2005-07-19	17	2nd	2 15 39 57 62 73
2005-06-04	2	1st	15 18 35 55 64 88
2005-05-28	2	4th	2 3 10 15 31 61
2005-05-21	7	2nd	4 15 25 39 45 79
2005-04-27	16	2nd	13 15 19 21 82 86
2005-03-02	11	1st	15 31 62 68 72 73
2005-01-22	9	1st	15 45 62 63 80 82
2004-12-22	2	2nd	14 15 54 77 80 82
2004-12-15	2	3rd	3 4 15 21 61 67
2004-12-09	8	3rd	6 8 15 18 33 75
2004-11-10	20	1st	15 51 63 79 83 90
2004-09-01	20	2nd	5 15 66 67 82 84
2004-06-23	25	2nd	11 15 58 66 74 79
2004-03-27	21	2nd	4 15 39 41 49 68
2004-01-14	1	2nd	5 15 59 65 70 82
2004-01-10	3	1st	15 25 26 32 51 61
2003-12-31	20	2nd	3 15 31 36 43 82
2003-10-22	28	2nd	14 15 64 76 80 86
2003-07-16	11	1st	15 18 29 37 47 50
2003-06-07	15	1st	15 37 38 57 76 87
2003-04-16	6	1st	15 22 37 64 88 90
2003-03-26	46	1st	15 37 43 51 61 89
2002-11-02	1	2nd	1 15 22 33 42 80
2002-10-30	7	2nd	13 15 36 78 82 86
2002-10-05	14	2nd	9 15 25 40 44 71
2002-08-17	12	1st	15 30 33 35 87 88
2002-07-06	19	2nd	3 15 28 76 83 86
2002-05-02	8	2nd	7 15 17 26 36 54
2002-04-03	4	1st	15 37 40 47 64 81
2002-03-20	17	1st	15 35 42 45 55 77
2002-01-19	3	1st	15 19 30 46 47 71
2002-01-09	58	1st	15 30 37 52 61 87
2001-06-23	11	2nd	4 15 22 34 77 87
2001-05-16	26	2nd	13 15 18 49 65 73
2001-02-14	12	1st	15 22 38 62 83 86
2001-01-03	22	1st	15 25 26 33 41 62
2000-10-18	4	1st	15 33 41 48 52 56
2000-10-04	11	3rd	2 3 15 16 24 67
2000-08-26	13	3rd	4 14 15 19 76 85
2000-07-12	6	2nd	11 15 16 43 49 84
2000-06-21	2	2nd	12 15 34 43 55 75
2000-06-14	23	1st	15 25 50 64 80 89
2000-03-25	5	1st	15 27 47 51 62 63
2000-03-08	13	3rd	4 13 15 20 32 41
2000-01-22	3	1st	15 21 55 60 70 90
2000-01-12	1	2nd	3 15 48 74 76 81
2000-01-08	3	2nd	6 15 47 71 75 86
1999-12-29	29	2nd	14 15 20 42 70 88
1999-09-18	3	2nd	12 15 33 60 79 88
1999-09-08	35	1st	15 38 48 74 75 80
1999-05-08	46	3rd	11 14 15 30 68 81
1998-11-28	6	2nd	12 15 40 50 66 88
1998-11-07	7	1st	15 19 25 33 40 68
1998-10-14	11	1st	15 28 42 55 76 88
1998-09-05	5	1st	15 16 20 23 24 87
1998-08-19	11	2nd	6 15 16 50 62 82
1998-07-11	17	1st	15 16 17 57 60 63
1998-05-13	4	2nd	6 15 41 57 81 83
1998-04-29	22	1st	15 23 27 29 50 69
1998-02-11	—	2nd	2 15 63 65 68 78