Number 4

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Nov 2016 – Sep 2022 rules — 1,768 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

268times drawn · chance expected 204 +4.76σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 69% for any number

6.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

36longest completed wait · 97% chance of one at least that long

4 deviates beyond what chance explains for a pool of 26

Drawn 268 times in 1,768 draws against 204.0 expected, +4.76σ. It passes even the threshold tightened for testing every number at once. Read the draw-by-draw history below before reading anything into it — and it still says nothing about the next draw.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 268 times in 1,768 draws · average wait 6.6 draws · longest completed wait 36 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest189 · chance 206.4
2nd smallest70 · chance 59.0
3rd smallest9 · chance 2.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 21.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 10 17 5 1 8

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 25 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-09-15	12	1st	4 15 22
2022-09-02	8	1st	4 10 17
2022-08-25	8	1st	4 18 21
2022-08-17	5	2nd	3 4 7
2022-08-12	2	1st	4 12 23
2022-08-10	5	1st

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-04-24	5	1st	4 5 8
2022-04-19	13	1st	4 11 18
2022-04-06	1	1st	4 23 24
2022-04-05	1	1st	4 5 24
2022-04-04	6	1st	4 14 22
2022-03-29	2	1st	4 10 21
2022-03-27	3	1st	4 11 15
2022-03-24	1	1st	4 12 14
2022-03-23	2	1st	4 10 21
2022-03-21	0	1st	4 20
2022-03-21	20	1st	4 20
2022-03-01	12	2nd	3 4 10
2022-02-17	3	1st	4 6 12
2022-02-14	22	1st	4 7 13
2022-01-23	2	2nd	2 4 21
2022-01-21	0	1st	4 17
2022-01-21	1	1st	4 17
2022-01-20	2	1st	4 10 26
2022-01-18	2	1st	4 5 10
2022-01-16	7	1st	4 13 17
2022-01-09	12	2nd	3 4 20
2021-12-28	3	2nd	3 4 14
2021-12-25	1	1st	4 5 10
2021-12-24	1	1st	4 8 25
2021-12-23	10	2nd	2 4 25
2021-12-13	4	1st	4 5 10
2021-12-09	13	3rd	1 3 4
2021-11-26	7	1st	4 21 24
2021-11-19	1	1st	4 9 18
2021-11-18	10	1st	4 8 16
2021-11-08	5	2nd	3 4 5
2021-11-03	3	2nd	1 4 6
2021-10-31	6	1st	4 8 10
2021-10-25	1	1st	4 6 11
2021-10-24	19	1st	4 15 17
2021-10-05	20	1st	4 7 17
2021-09-15	8	1st	4 12 23
2021-09-07	1	1st	4 10 14
2021-09-06	6	1st	4 5 6
2021-08-31	6	1st	4 12 15
2021-08-25	4	1st	4 15 17
2021-08-21	1	1st	4 11 15
2021-08-20	9	1st	4 5 9
2021-08-11	1	1st	4 6 16
2021-08-10	1	1st	4 6 22
2021-08-09	4	1st	4 17 21
2021-08-05	7	1st	4 14 17
2021-07-29	0	1st	4 10
2021-07-29	11	1st	4 10
2021-07-18	0	1st	4 10
2021-07-18	6	1st	4 10
2021-07-12	7	1st	4 8 15
2021-07-05	12	1st	4 10 12
2021-06-23	5	2nd	1 4 19
2021-06-18	15	2nd	3 4 8
2021-06-03	5	1st	4 10 14
2021-05-29	35	1st	4 16 18
2021-04-24	4	1st	4 7 23
2021-04-20	1	2nd	2 4 21
2021-04-19	6	1st	4 19 24
2021-04-13	9	1st	4 5 8
2021-04-04	7	1st	4 9 18
2021-03-28	2	1st	4 12 18
2021-03-26	21	1st	4 6 10
2021-03-05	8	2nd	2 4 7
2021-02-25	3	2nd	2 4 25
2021-02-22	6	2nd	2 4 6
2021-02-16	1	1st	4 6 15
2021-02-15	30	1st	4 5 6
2021-01-16	5	1st	4 6 12
2021-01-11	1	1st	4 9 19
2021-01-10	21	2nd	1 4 24
2020-12-20	7	2nd	3 4 12
2020-12-13	3	1st	4 13 24
2020-12-10	17	2nd	1 4 21
2020-11-23	10	1st	4 9 24
2020-11-13	2	2nd	3 4 22
2020-11-11	7	2nd	2 4 8
2020-11-04	36	1st	4 15 22
2020-09-29	1	2nd	3 4 20
2020-09-28	9	1st	4 13 20
2020-09-19	24	1st	4 16 16
2020-08-26	8	3rd	1 1 4
2020-08-18	8	1st	4 6 13
2020-08-10	3	2nd	2 4 19
2020-08-07	4	2nd	2 4 17
2020-08-03	6	1st	4 19 23
2020-07-28	10	1st	4 15 17
2020-07-18	3	1st	4 13 17
2020-07-15	5	1st	4 8 13
2020-07-10	1	1st	4 5 26
2020-07-09	7	2nd	3 4 18
2020-07-02	14	2nd	3 4 6
2020-06-18	6	2nd	3 4 8
2020-06-12	16	1st	4 6 12
2020-05-27	8	2nd	1 4 21
2020-05-19	9	2nd	1 4 10
2020-05-10	2	1st	4 16 20
2020-05-08	13	2nd	1 4 17
2020-04-25	4	2nd	2 4 7
2020-04-21	4	1st	4 5 13
2020-04-17	2	1st	4 17 20
2020-04-15	4	1st	4 9 18
2020-04-11	3	1st	4 14 17
2020-04-08	2	1st	4 18 21
2020-04-06	14	1st	4 6 10
2020-03-23	1	3rd	1 3 4
2020-03-22	1	1st	4 5 19
2020-03-21	13	1st	4 10 17
2020-03-08	14	2nd	2 4 22
2020-02-23	12	1st	4 9 17
2020-02-11	1	1st	4 5 22
2020-02-10	22	1st	4 7 17
2020-01-19	5	1st	4 10 16
2020-01-14	2	3rd	2 3 4
2020-01-12	15	1st	4 14 24
2019-12-28	3	1st	4 11 21
2019-12-25	6	2nd	1 4 23
2019-12-19	1	1st	4 6 20
2019-12-18	4	2nd	3 4 22
2019-12-14	6	2nd	1 4 10
2019-12-08	3	2nd	1 4 19
2019-12-05	3	1st	4 9 14
2019-12-02	5	2nd	3 4 26
2019-11-27	1	1st	4 5 13
2019-11-26	5	1st	4 15 26
2019-11-21	6	1st	4 9 9
2019-11-15	23	2nd	2 4 5
2019-10-23	6	1st	4 11 18
2019-10-17	8	2nd	3 4 12
2019-10-09	5	1st	4 8 24
2019-10-04	1	1st	4 8 20
2019-10-03	2	2nd	3 4 9
2019-10-01	5	1st	4 6 15
2019-09-26	1	1st	4 17 21
2019-09-25	3	3rd	3 3 4
2019-09-22	17	1st	4 5 6
2019-09-05	13	1st	4 7 9
2019-08-23	6	1st	4 6 24
2019-08-17	1	2nd	3 4 17
2019-08-16	3	1st	4 8 13
2019-08-13	4	2nd	3 4 11
2019-08-09	3	1st	4 14 19
2019-08-06	7	1st	4 21 23
2019-07-30	2	3rd	1 3 4
2019-07-28	1	1st	4 15 24
2019-07-27	18	2nd	3 4 12
2019-07-09	1	1st	4 16 24
2019-07-08	2	2nd	2 4 18
2019-07-06	6	2nd	3 4 16
2019-06-30	2	1st	4 6 21
2019-06-28	7	1st	4 22 26
2019-06-21	2	1st	4 7 9
2019-06-19	1	2nd	3 4 21
2019-06-18	2	1st	4 12 17
2019-06-16	4	1st	4 6 18
2019-06-12	1	1st	4 11 12
2019-06-11	19	1st	4 18 21
2019-05-23	8	1st	4 8 17
2019-05-15	7	1st	4 14 22
2019-05-08	1	1st	4 12 24
2019-05-07	3	1st	4 7 16
2019-05-04	2	2nd	2 4 8
2019-05-02	2	1st	4 17 17
2019-04-30	1	1st	4 9 24
2019-04-29	0	2nd	2 4
2019-04-29	6	2nd	2 4
2019-04-23	6	1st	4 9 10
2019-04-17	1	1st	4 9 16
2019-04-16	2	1st	4 5 21
2019-04-14	8	2nd	3 4 25
2019-04-06	15	1st	4 5 12
2019-03-22	4	1st	4 6 16
2019-03-18	4	1st	4 8 19
2019-03-14	1	1st	4 6 10
2019-03-13	1	1st	4 11 22
2019-03-12	2	2nd	1 4 15
2019-03-10	2	2nd	3 4 24
2019-03-08	23	2nd	1 4 21
2019-02-13	5	1st	4 8 11
2019-02-08	2	1st	4 5 21
2019-02-06	6	1st	4 8 21
2019-01-31	12	1st	4 9 16
2019-01-19	21	1st	4 10 26
2017-12-29	17	2nd	3 4 24
2017-12-12	5	1st	4 8 16
2017-12-07	6	1st	4 5 24
2017-12-01	6	1st	4 5 17
2017-11-25	1	3rd	3 3 4
2017-11-24	10	1st	4 8 20
2017-11-14	20	2nd	1 4 22
2017-10-25	4	2nd	3 4 7
2017-10-21	5	1st	4 12 16
2017-10-16	6	2nd	2 4 8
2017-10-10	8	1st	4 11 25
2017-10-02	0	1st	4 9
2017-10-02	2	1st	4 9
2017-09-30	12	2nd	3 4 16
2017-09-18	3	1st	4 13 22
2017-09-15	1	1st	4 6 10
2017-09-14	3	2nd	1 4 12
2017-09-11	13	1st	4 17 21
2017-08-29	18	2nd	1 4 22
2017-08-11	1	1st	4 16 22
2017-08-10	1	1st	4 5 17
2017-08-09	9	1st	4 8 15
2017-07-31	10	3rd	1 1 4
2017-07-21	2	1st	4 15 17
2017-07-19	2	1st	4 8 19
2017-07-17	10	1st	4 5 16
2017-07-07	1	2nd	2 4 16
2017-07-06	35	1st	4 6 14
2017-06-01	1	1st	4 18 24
2017-05-31	4	2nd	1 4 22
2017-05-27	5	1st	4 7 10
2017-05-22	8	1st	4 5 25
2017-05-14	5	1st	4 11 21
2017-05-09	2	2nd	3 4 11
2017-05-07	3	1st	4 8 14
2017-05-04	0	1st	4 10
2017-05-04	2	1st	4 10
2017-05-02	8	2nd	2 4 12
2017-04-24	3	1st	4 17 21
2017-04-21	2	1st	4 10 21
2017-04-19	1	1st	4 8 11
2017-04-18	6	1st	4 13 25
2017-04-12	1	1st	4 5 14
2017-04-11	1	2nd	1 4 19
2017-04-10	10	1st	4 16 24
2017-03-31	17	1st	4 13 17
2017-03-14	2	1st	4 13 16
2017-03-12	5	2nd	1 4 7
2017-03-07	1	1st	4 10 16
2017-03-06	11	1st	4 12 15
2017-02-23	16	1st	4 9 16
2017-02-07	2	2nd	1 4 5
2017-02-05	7	1st	4 14 15
2017-01-29	12	1st	4 15 17
2017-01-17	17	1st	4 16 18
2016-12-31	9	1st	4 9 25
2016-12-22	18	1st	4 11 20
2016-12-04	8	1st	4 20 25
2016-11-26	4	1st	4 11 23
2016-11-22	—	1st	4 21 24