Number 4

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

7times drawn · chance expected 6 +0.66σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 69% for any number

6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

14longest completed wait · 74% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 7 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +0.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 7 times in 48 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 14 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest7 · chance 5.4
2nd smallest0 · chance 1.5
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

18 6 5 10 11 13

Never drawn alongside 16 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-18	13	1st	4 13 25
2022-11-04	1	1st	4 5 6
2022-11-03	0	1st	4 18
2022-11-03	1	1st	4 18
2022-11-02	12	1st	4 10 18
2022-10-21	14	1st	4 11

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.