Number 6

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

6times drawn · chance expected 6 +0.21σ

12draws waiting · a wait this long: 26% for any number

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

15longest completed wait · 63% chance of one at least that long

6 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 6 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +0.21σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 6, draw by draw

Drawn 6 times in 48 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 15 · waiting 12 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 6 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 3.8
2nd smallest4 · chance 2.0
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

4 5 11 21 1 3

Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 6 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 6 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-10	5	2nd	1 6 21
2022-11-04	11	3rd	4 5 6
2022-10-24	2	1st	6 11 21
2022-10-22	15	2nd	5 6 10
2022-10-07	2	2nd	4 6 17
2022-10-05	—	2nd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 6 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.