Number 17

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

9times drawn · chance expected 6 +1.56σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number

5.4average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

21longest completed wait · 51% chance of one at least that long

17 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 9 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +1.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 17, draw by draw

Drawn 9 times in 48 draws · average wait 5.4 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 17 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 1.1
2nd smallest5 · chance 4.3
3rd smallest4 · chance 3.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 7 25 2 4 5

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 17 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 17 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-20	6	2nd	8 17 22
2022-11-14	2	3rd	2 5 17
2022-11-12	3	3rd	1 10 17
2022-11-09	21	2nd	1 17 25
2022-10-18	4	3rd	1 12 17
2022-10-14	0	2nd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 17 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.