Number 1

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 6 +2.02σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 78% for any number

3.7average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

12longest completed wait · 93% chance of one at least that long

1 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +2.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 1, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 48 draws · average wait 3.7 draws · longest completed wait 12 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest10 · chance 10.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

17 21 5 25 6 7

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 1 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-19	4	1st	1 8 21
2022-11-15	3	1st	1 11 25
2022-11-12	2	1st	1 10 17
2022-11-10	1	1st	1 6 21
2022-11-09	12	1st	1 17 25
2022-10-27	9	1st

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.