Number 11

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 6 +2.02σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

5.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

16longest completed wait · 79% chance of one at least that long

11 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +2.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 11, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 48 draws · average wait 5.1 draws · longest completed wait 16 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 3.5
2nd smallest6 · chance 5.0
3rd smallest2 · chance 1.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

10 6 25 1 2 3

Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-21	6	1st	11 12 20
2022-11-15	2	2nd	1 11 25
2022-11-13	0	2nd	10 11
2022-11-13	7	2nd	10 11
2022-11-05	8	3rd	2 10 11
2022-10-28	3	2nd	9 11

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.