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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).
Drawn 5 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, −0.24σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 5 times in 48 draws · average wait 10.5 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 8 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 8 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-20 | 1 | 1st | 81722 |
| 2022-11-19 | 3 | 2nd | 1821 |
| 2022-11-16 | 14 | 3rd | 558 |
| 2022-11-01 | 24 | 2nd | 2815 |
| 2022-10-08 | — | 1st | 82020 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 8 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.