Number 2

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

6times drawn · chance expected 6 +0.21σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 42% for any number

6.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

12longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long

2 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 6 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +0.21σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 2, draw by draw

Drawn 6 times in 48 draws · average wait 6.6 draws · longest completed wait 12 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest6 · chance 5.5
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.5
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

15 5 7 8 10 11

Never drawn alongside 14 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 2 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-14	3	1st	2 5 17
2022-11-11	5	1st	2 15 16
2022-11-05	4	1st	2 10 11
2022-11-01	9	1st	2 8 15
2022-10-23	12	1st	2 23 25
2022-10-11	—	1st

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.