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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2024 rules — 216 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).
Drawn 19 times in 216 draws against 32.4 expected, −2.55σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 19 times in 216 draws · average wait 9.9 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 39 numbers; chance expects about 3 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | 1 | 2nd | 41114193235 |
| 2024-09-21 | 3 | 2nd | 91126313536 |
| 2024-09-11 | 19 | 2nd | 91117242739 |
| 2024-07-06 | 6 | 2nd | 21119253338 |
| 2024-06-15 | 10 | 2nd | 71116182325 |
| 2024-05-11 | 13 | 2nd | 71115253337 |
| 2024-03-27 | 2 | 3rd | 1611333538 |
| 2024-03-20 | 8 | 1st | 112124272829 |
| 2024-02-21 | 5 | 2nd | 31117252831 |
| 2024-02-03 | 18 | 3rd | 11011182135 |
| 2023-12-02 | 19 | 3rd | 2911162126 |
| 2023-09-27 | 20 | 1st | 111820283240 |
| 2023-07-19 | 11 | 1st | 111627313238 |
| 2023-06-10 | 3 | 2nd | 61117232636 |
| 2023-05-31 | 5 | 3rd | 71011121328 |
| 2023-05-13 | 2 | 3rd | 1211152429 |
| 2023-05-06 | 31 | 1st | 112223243032 |
| 2023-01-18 | 3 | 3rd | 4611293236 |
| 2023-01-07 | — | 2nd | 71113282939 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.