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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2024 rules — 216 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).
Drawn 37 times in 216 draws against 32.4 expected, +0.88σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 37 times in 216 draws · average wait 5.9 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.3 still unmet by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2023-07-08 | 3 | 3rd | 6714182731 |
| 2023-06-28 | 18 | 2nd | 21418223335 |
| 2023-04-26 | 8 | 2nd | 11415182236 |
| 2023-03-29 | 3 | 3rd | 31314283640 |
| 2023-03-18 | 3 | 3rd | 4514252937 |
| 2023-03-08 | 3 | 4th | 256142830 |
| 2023-02-25 | 12 | 1st | 141531343637 |
| 2023-01-14 | 31 | 2nd | 11420232932 |
| 2022-09-28 | — | 3rd | 1214182239 |