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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Lotto under the 6/40 + 1/0 · Sep 2022 – Oct 2024 rules — 216 draws, 6 from 1–40 (an earlier era).
Drawn 34 times in 216 draws against 32.4 expected, +0.30σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 34 times in 216 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 26 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 39 numbers; chance expects about 0.5 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 26 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 26 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-05 | 4 | 5th | 121417222635 |
| 2024-09-21 | 4 | 3rd | 91126313536 |
| 2024-09-07 | 6 | 5th | 41222232640 |
| 2024-08-17 | 26 | 5th | 368142627 |
| 2024-05-18 | 4 | 5th | 2816212639 |
| 2024-05-04 | 14 | 5th | 121619252630 |
| 2024-03-16 | 3 | 3rd | 11026303640 |
| 2024-03-06 | 3 | 4th | 4522262736 |
| 2024-02-24 | 3 | 6th | 91622232526 |
| 2024-02-14 | 1 | 2nd | 122627343539 |
| 2024-02-10 | 5 | 4th | 121420262939 |
| 2024-01-24 | 3 | 4th | 126263036 |
| 2024-01-13 | 10 | 5th | 71523242630 |
| 2023-12-09 | 2 | 4th | 141522263039 |
| 2023-12-02 | 1 | 6th | 2911162126 |
| 2023-11-29 | 3 | 4th | 31620262839 |
| 2023-11-18 | 13 | 3rd | 192026323437 |
| 2023-10-04 | 11 | 5th | 121516212638 |
| 2023-08-26 | 9 | 6th | 81617192026 |
| 2023-07-26 | 4 | 5th | 3814172631 |
| 2023-07-12 | 9 | 4th | 41617263236 |
| 2023-06-10 | 7 | 5th | 61117232636 |
| 2023-05-17 | 11 | 5th | 359232628 |
| 2023-04-08 | 1 | 3rd | 212426283136 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 26 is drawn with probability 6/40 tonight whatever it did last week.