In Lotto under the 6/52 + 1/25 · Oct 2012 – Jan 2015 rules — 339 draws, 6 from 1–52 (an earlier era).
46times drawn · chance expected 39 +1.17σ
15draws waiting · a wait this long: 18% for any number
7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7
18longest completed wait · >99% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 46 times in 339 draws against 39.1 expected, +1.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 46 times in 339 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 51 numbers; chance expected about 0.6 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 52. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/52 tonight whatever it did last week.