In Lotto under the 6/52 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2012 rules — 442 draws, 6 from 1–52 (an earlier era).
53times drawn · chance expected 51 +0.30σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number
8.4average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7
35longest completed wait · 56% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 53 times in 442 draws against 51.0 expected, +0.30σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 53 times in 442 draws · average wait 8.4 draws · longest completed wait 35 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 51 numbers; chance expects about 0.3 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 52. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/52 tonight whatever it did last week.