In Mega Millions under the 5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017 rules — 420 draws, 5 from 1–75 (an earlier era).
22times drawn · chance expected 28 −1.17σ
37draws waiting · a wait this long: 8% for any number
17.8average wait between appearances · chance says 15.0
53longest completed wait · 45% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 22 times in 420 draws against 28.0 expected, −1.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 37 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 22 times in 420 draws · average wait 17.8 draws · longest completed wait 53 · waiting 37 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 21 of the other 74 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 75. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/75 tonight whatever it did last week.