Number 15

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 5 from 1–70 (an earlier era).

62times drawn · chance expected 55 +0.92σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 80% for any number

12.5average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

72longest completed wait · 27% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 62 times in 776 draws against 55.4 expected, +0.92σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 62 times in 776 draws · average wait 12.5 draws · longest completed wait 72 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest27 · chance 24.5
2nd smallest25 · chance 26.3
3rd smallest9 · chance 9.7
4th smallest1 · chance 1.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

32 53 19 25 30 35

Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 2 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-03-21	72	1st	15 22 31 52 57
2024-07-12	2	1st	15 35 48 53 68
2024-07-05	18	2nd	6 15 32 54 67
2024-05-03	2	3rd	6 13

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-05-10	2	1st	15 19 20 61 70
2022-05-03	12	1st	15 19 27 35 57
2022-03-22	7	2nd	8 15 21 27 61
2022-02-25	3	1st	15 31 40 56 66
2022-02-15	29	3rd	2 4 15 21 63
2021-11-05	2	2nd	10 15 20 66 68
2021-10-29	15	1st	15 26 28 35 45
2021-09-07	38	1st	15 17 25 32 53
2021-04-27	4	1st	15 22 30 41 42
2021-04-13	13	2nd	10 15 19 45 68
2021-02-26	20	2nd	11 15 37 62 64
2020-12-18	3	2nd	7 15 25 51 60
2020-12-08	4	1st	15 19 33 39 68
2020-11-24	14	2nd	9 15 34 61 64
2020-10-06	7	1st	15 16 18 39 59
2020-09-11	1	2nd	3 15 42 48 56
2020-09-08	2	3rd	7 10 15 31 57
2020-09-01	2	1st	15 25 26 38 47
2020-08-25	1	3rd	8 10 15 17 57
2020-08-21	12	2nd	11 15 31 42 63
2020-07-10	23	2nd	10 15 20 49 53
2020-04-21	13	2nd	13 15 24 67 70
2020-03-06	49	1st	15 48 56 58 70
2019-09-17	7	2nd	12 15 30 50 65
2019-08-23	4	2nd	11 15 37 54 68
2019-08-09	38	1st	15 53 56 59 63
2019-03-29	7	3rd	5 14 15 62 66
2019-03-05	6	1st	15 20 32 37 52
2019-02-12	6	1st	15 32 39 50 65
2019-01-22	27	2nd	4 15 37 59 64
2018-10-19	11	1st	15 23 53 65 70
2018-09-11	10	1st	15 30 51 62 67
2018-08-07	2	3rd	2 13 15 21 62
2018-07-31	24	2nd	12 15 35 64 69
2018-05-08	5	2nd	8 15 39 64 67
2018-04-20	19	2nd	1 15 18 32 45
2018-02-13	20	3rd	5 12 15 46 49
2017-12-05	—	2nd	14 15 37 42 67