Number 15

In Mega Millions under the 5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 rules — 869 draws, 5 from 1–56 (an earlier era).

76times drawn · chance expected 78 −0.19σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 83% for any number

11.3average wait between appearances · chance says 11.2

55longest completed wait · 38% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 76 times in 869 draws against 77.6 expected, −0.19σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 76 times in 869 draws · average wait 11.3 draws · longest completed wait 55 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest18 · chance 22.6
2nd smallest41 · chance 33.3
3rd smallest14 · chance 16.6
4th smallest3 · chance 3.3
5th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

23 6 20 38 39 53

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 55 numbers; chance expected about 0.2 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 56. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2013-10-08	5	2nd	6 15 19 23 40
2013-09-20	1	2nd	1 15 20 21 47
2013-09-17	23	2nd	6 15 27 31 39
2013-06-28	5	2nd	8 15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/56 tonight whatever it did last week.

2011-03-29	7	2nd	6 15 23 34 38
2011-03-04	3	3rd	8 10 15 23 41
2011-02-22	11	1st	15 22 23 48 55
2011-01-14	3	2nd	2 15 17 33 35
2011-01-04	3	3rd	4 8 15 25 47
2010-12-24	17	1st	15 16 27 40 52
2010-10-26	29	1st	15 21 30 31 32
2010-07-16	1	2nd	2 15 18 20 39
2010-07-13	4	4th	7 11 14 15 34
2010-06-29	7	3rd	3 4 15 27 37
2010-06-04	4	3rd	12 13 15 17 50
2010-05-21	12	1st	15 20 23 26 30
2010-04-09	8	1st	15 18 39 48 53
2010-03-12	38	2nd	2 15 25 48 53
2009-10-30	8	2nd	4 15 17 29 38
2009-10-02	15	1st	15 24 51 53 55
2009-08-11	13	3rd	6 12 15 32 42
2009-06-26	3	2nd	11 15 17 29 46
2009-06-16	8	2nd	9 15 21 26 45
2009-05-19	6	4th	2 4 9 15 42
2009-04-28	9	1st	15 20 24 36 44
2009-03-27	2	2nd	10 15 24 38 50
2009-03-20	1	1st	15 16 20 39 40
2009-03-17	12	2nd	9 15 24 28 31
2009-02-03	22	2nd	4 15 29 43 56
2008-11-18	9	2nd	10 15 22 52 53
2008-10-17	2	2nd	7 15 27 28 31
2008-10-10	10	2nd	14 15 43 46 48
2008-09-05	4	3rd	1 6 15 27 46
2008-08-22	21	3rd	12 13 15 41 42
2008-06-10	24	3rd	3 5 15 43 51
2008-03-18	4	2nd	13 15 20 25 44
2008-03-04	12	2nd	7 15 30 33 56
2008-01-22	20	2nd	12 15 22 25 33
2007-11-13	7	1st	15 26 36 39 40
2007-10-19	55	2nd	5 15 18 23 46
2007-04-10	3	2nd	7 15 16 19 28
2007-03-30	19	1st	15 23 37 48 53
2007-01-23	2	3rd	3 5 15 26 53
2007-01-16	7	3rd	4 8 15 33 52
2006-12-22	4	3rd	5 12 15 25 34
2006-12-08	12	2nd	1 15 29 32 45
2006-10-27	17	1st	15 22 26 30 32
2006-08-29	15	1st	15 25 37 38 52
2006-07-07	1	2nd	7 15 27 46 56
2006-07-04	16	2nd	9 15 31 42 45
2006-05-09	18	2nd	7 15 24 43 44
2006-03-07	18	1st	15 27 36 38 42
2006-01-03	7	1st	15 19 20 32 38
2005-12-09	26	2nd	14 15 31 32 43
2005-09-09	7	1st	15 28 43 51 52
2005-08-16	—	2nd	9 15 20 24 55