Number 15

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 17 −0.56σ

14draws waiting · a wait this long: 25% for any number

10.3average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

29longest completed wait · 53% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 172 draws · average wait 10.3 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 14 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 3.7
2nd smallest6 · chance 6.5
3rd smallest3 · chance 3.8
4th smallest1 · chance 0.9
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 13 17 22 29 36

Never drawn alongside 14 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-11-24	14	2nd	14 15 17 33 43
1998-10-06	5	4th	1 3 13 15 22
1998-09-18	16	1st	15 22 23 40 50
1998-07-24	3	2nd	7 15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.