Number 40

In Lotto under the 6/49 + 1/49 · Jan 2010 – Aug 2017 rules — 789 draws, 6 from 1–49 (an earlier era).

106times drawn · chance expected 97 +1.02σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number

7.3average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

29longest completed wait · 94% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 106 times in 789 draws against 96.6 expected, +1.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 16 times, counted separately.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 106 times in 789 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.3
3rd smallest8 · chance 3.9
4th smallest16 · chance 20.4
5th smallest48 · chance 45.8
6th smallest34 · chance 35.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 11.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

24 5 33 4 22 9

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2017-07-12	1	6th	1 24 31 33 35 40
2017-07-08	13	5th	5 33 36 38 40 45
2017-05-24	24	6th	1 9 14 16 30 40
2017-03-01	1	3rd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 6/49 tonight whatever it did last week.

2015-12-02	8	5th	25 33 34 36 40 43
2015-11-04	3	6th	29 31 36 38 39 40
2015-10-24	7	6th	5 11 28 29 31 40
2015-09-30	17	3rd	3 4 40 44 46 49
2015-08-01	3	6th	8 22 24 33 38 40
2015-07-22	12	3rd	20 23 40 43 47 49
2015-06-10	5	5th	3 5 23 37 40 48
2015-05-23	2	6th	6 18 26 30 34 40
2015-05-16	12	5th	5 22 23 25 40 43
2015-04-04	2	5th	15 26 27 33 40 45
2015-03-28	4	5th	10 11 18 24 40 46
2015-03-14	6	6th	17 22 23 26 30 40
2015-02-21	2	3rd	5 27 40 41 42 46
2015-02-14	6	5th	6 32 33 38 40 49
2015-01-24	11	5th	6 17 27 30 40 43
2014-12-17	3	6th	2 16 23 25 29 40
2014-12-06	2	5th	4 9 23 39 40 48
2014-11-29	4	5th	9 24 28 36 40 45
2014-11-15	6	5th	5 15 25 34 40 46
2014-10-25	4	4th	11 14 36 40 46 48
2014-10-11	4	5th	7 8 18 35 40 42
2014-09-27	15	6th	3 12 13 29 33 40
2014-08-06	9	5th	6 15 17 30 40 42
2014-07-05	6	6th	3 4 5 22 35 40
2014-06-14	28	5th	12 25 28 37 40 48
2014-03-08	11	4th	6 9 24 40 48 49
2014-01-29	13	5th	2 13 15 36 40 43
2013-12-11	5	5th	5 24 29 38 40 49
2013-11-23	11	5th	4 19 29 34 40 45
2013-10-16	6	4th	27 31 39 40 44 45
2013-09-25	6	5th	3 9 13 20 40 41
2013-09-04	3	6th	5 10 17 18 23 40
2013-08-24	4	6th	5 22 29 35 36 40
2013-08-10	4	6th	4 5 16 18 38 40
2013-07-27	5	5th	18 19 31 34 40 42
2013-07-10	1	5th	8 9 21 37 40 46
2013-07-06	17	5th	8 11 25 29 40 48
2013-05-08	1	6th	5 7 8 21 28 40
2013-05-04	2	3rd	2 39 40 45 46 47
2013-04-27	1	6th	4 5 9 11 39 40
2013-04-24	3	5th	1 3 4 23 40 42
2013-04-13	9	4th	10 12 35 40 47 49
2013-03-13	2	6th	12 27 30 33 37 40
2013-03-06	21	3rd	28 29 40 42 43 44
2012-12-22	5	5th	4 15 24 34 40 47
2012-12-05	6	6th	5 8 14 30 32 40
2012-11-14	7	5th	1 13 28 31 40 49
2012-10-20	10	5th	1 2 22 31 40 44
2012-09-15	11	5th	12 15 24 33 40 47
2012-08-08	4	6th	16 18 22 24 30 40
2012-07-25	3	4th	20 24 30 40 41 44
2012-07-14	10	5th	12 20 22 27 40 44
2012-06-09	4	5th	9 11 15 26 40 48
2012-05-26	2	5th	2 13 24 34 40 47
2012-05-19	2	5th	8 14 16 18 40 41
2012-05-12	5	5th	5 24 29 33 40 47
2012-04-25	1	3rd	6 28 40 43 45 47
2012-04-21	7	6th	6 8 9 22 25 40
2012-03-28	4	6th	4 6 8 10 35 40
2012-03-14	1	6th	2 17 24 26 28 40
2012-03-10	6	5th	7 15 35 39 40 44
2012-02-18	9	6th	2 28 29 30 32 40
2012-01-18	1	5th	21 24 31 33 40 43
2012-01-14	16	6th	2 6 9 30 37 40
2011-11-19	4	4th	1 24 30 40 43 44
2011-11-05	29	6th	5 16 33 36 39 40
2011-07-27	6	4th	20 21 33 40 41 44
2011-07-06	9	6th	6 10 25 27 30 40
2011-06-04	2	5th	7 13 18 21 40 41
2011-05-28	20	5th	4 10 14 22 40 41
2011-03-19	15	6th	3 10 14 35 37 40
2011-01-26	5	6th	22 26 31 35 37 40
2011-01-08	10	5th	10 12 26 39 40 44
2010-12-01	5	5th	1 8 15 24 40 42
2010-11-13	1	4th	15 23 26 40 42 46
2010-11-10	22	6th	12 19 25 26 28 40
2010-08-25	2	5th	1 4 6 22 40 45
2010-08-18	24	5th	22 24 27 36 40 43
2010-05-26	15	4th	11 18 39 40 42 44
2010-04-03	6	4th	19 26 32 40 42 47
2010-03-13	8	5th	4 5 19 21 40 43
2010-02-13	—	5th	17 18 20 30 40 42