Number 25

In 2by2 under the 3/26 · Oct 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 48 draws, 3 from 1–26 (an earlier era).

8times drawn · chance expected 6 +1.11σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 69% for any number

5.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

11longest completed wait · 91% chance of one at least that long

25 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 8 times in 48 draws against 5.5 expected, +1.11σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 25, draw by draw

Drawn 8 times in 48 draws · average wait 5.6 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 25 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.6
3rd smallest8 · chance 7.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 9 11 17 2 4

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 25 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 25 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 26. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 25 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-18	3	3rd	4 13 25
2022-11-15	6	3rd	1 11 25
2022-11-09	11	3rd	1 17 25
2022-10-28	5	3rd	9 11 25
2022-10-23	8	3rd	2 23 25
2022-10-15	2	3rd

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 25 is drawn with probability 3/26 tonight whatever it did last week.