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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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LotteryOracle reports what happened; it does not predict what is next. Every draw is independent — no number is ever "due".

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Montana Cash · every number

26

Number 26

In Montana Cash under the 5/37 · Apr 2010 – May 2014 rules — 428 draws, 5 from 1–37 (an earlier era).

5/45 · since May 20145/37 · Apr 2010 – May 2014
58times drawn · chance expected 58 +0.02σ
9draws waiting · a wait this long: 31% for any number
7.1average wait between appearances · chance says 7.4
41longest completed wait · 16% chance of one at least that long
26 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 58 times in 428 draws against 57.8 expected, +0.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 9 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

26

Number 26, draw by draw

Drawn 58 times in 428 draws · average wait 7.1 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 9 draws now

5 draws: 2010-05-22 to 2010-06-092 draws: 2010-06-09 to 2010-06-1612 draws: 2010-06-16 to 2010-07-285 draws: 2010-07-28 to 2010-08-145 draws: 2010-08-14 to 2010-09-012 draws: 2010-09-01 to 2010-09-083 draws: 2010-09-08 to 2010-09-184 draws: 2010-09-18 to 2010-10-023 draws: 2010-10-02 to 2010-10-131 draws: 2010-10-13 to 2010-10-165 draws: 2010-10-16 to 2010-11-035 draws: 2010-11-03 to 2010-11-203 draws: 2010-11-20 to 2010-12-015 draws: 2010-12-01 to 2010-12-184 draws: 2010-12-18 to 2011-01-011 draws: 2011-01-01 to 2011-01-054 draws: 2011-01-05 to 2011-01-196 draws: 2011-01-19 to 2011-02-097 draws: 2011-02-09 to 2011-03-0521 draws: 2011-03-05 to 2011-05-183 draws: 2011-05-18 to 2011-05-2816 draws: 2011-05-28 to 2011-07-2316 draws: 2011-07-23 to 2011-09-173 draws: 2011-09-17 to 2011-09-282 draws: 2011-09-28 to 2011-10-054 draws: 2011-10-05 to 2011-10-192 draws: 2011-10-19 to 2011-10-269 draws: 2011-10-26 to 2011-11-264 draws: 2011-11-26 to 2011-12-105 draws: 2011-12-10 to 2011-12-289 draws: 2011-12-28 to 2012-01-2812 draws: 2012-01-28 to 2012-03-107 draws: 2012-03-10 to 2012-04-046 draws: 2012-04-04 to 2012-04-2527 draws: 2012-04-25 to 2012-07-2813 draws: 2012-07-28 to 2012-09-124 draws: 2012-09-12 to 2012-09-264 draws: 2012-09-26 to 2012-10-101 draws: 2012-10-10 to 2012-10-1312 draws: 2012-10-13 to 2012-11-2414 draws: 2012-11-24 to 2013-01-121 draws: 2013-01-12 to 2013-01-165 draws: 2013-01-16 to 2013-02-0215 draws: 2013-02-02 to 2013-03-271 draws: 2013-03-27 to 2013-03-308 draws: 2013-03-30 to 2013-04-2741 draws: 2013-04-27 to 2013-09-181 draws: 2013-09-18 to 2013-09-214 draws: 2013-09-21 to 2013-10-052 draws: 2013-10-05 to 2013-10-128 draws: 2013-10-12 to 2013-11-0916 draws: 2013-11-09 to 2014-01-042 draws: 2014-01-04 to 2014-01-111 draws: 2014-01-11 to 2014-01-1511 draws: 2014-01-15 to 2014-02-222 draws: 2014-02-22 to 2014-03-0111 draws: 2014-03-01 to 2014-04-09Still waiting — at least 9 draws since 2014-04-092010-05-222010-06-092010-06-162010-07-282010-08-142010-09-012010-09-082010-09-182010-10-022010-10-132010-10-162010-11-032010-11-202010-12-012010-12-182011-01-012011-01-052011-01-192011-02-092011-03-052011-05-182011-05-282011-07-232011-09-172011-09-282011-10-052011-10-192011-10-262011-11-262011-12-102011-12-282012-01-282012-03-102012-04-042012-04-252012-07-282012-09-122012-09-262012-10-102012-10-132012-11-242013-01-122013-01-162013-02-022013-03-272013-03-302013-04-272013-09-182013-09-212013-10-052013-10-122013-11-092014-01-042014-01-112014-01-152014-02-222014-03-012014-04-092010-04-072014-05-10

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 7 times2 draws: 7 times3 draws: 5 times4 draws: 8 times5 draws: 8 times6 draws: 2 times7 draws: 2 times8 draws: 2 times9 draws: 2 times10 draws: 0 times11 draws: 2 times12 draws: 3 times13 draws: 1 time14 draws: 1 time15 draws: 1 time16 draws: 3 times17 draws: 0 times18 draws: 0 times19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 1 time22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 times25 draws: 0 times26 draws: 0 times27 draws: 1 time28 draws: 0 times29 draws: 0 times30 draws: 0 times31 draws: 0 times32 draws: 0 times33 draws: 0 times34 draws: 0 times35 draws: 0 times36 draws: 0 times37 draws: 0 times38 draws: 0 times39 draws: 0 times40 draws: 0 times41 draws: 1 time42 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 26 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest0 · chance 0.3
  • 2nd smallest5 · chance 4.1
  • 3rd smallest17 · chance 16.2
  • 4th smallest20 · chance 24.9
  • 5th smallest16 · chance 12.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 6.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1151735623

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 36 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 26 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 37. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 26 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2014-04-09115th1419212226
2014-03-0125th1619202126
2014-02-22114th117232637
2014-01-1515th617
← number 25Every numbernumber 27 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 26 is drawn with probability 5/37 tonight whatever it did last week.

20
25
26
2014-01-1125th59152226
2014-01-04164th513242631
2013-11-0985th17142226
2013-10-1224th914202630
2013-10-0544th720252631
2013-09-2114th1382629
2013-09-18414th721252636
2013-04-2784th1314252629
2013-03-3013rd1017263034
2013-03-27153rd1318262932
2013-02-0255th1018232526
2013-01-1615th1014222526
2013-01-12144th1115202636
2012-11-24125th615162526
2012-10-1313rd19263037
2012-10-1045th26142326
2012-09-2645th1520232526
2012-09-12133rd923263035
2012-07-28273rd223263637
2012-04-2563rd113263035
The other 34 appearances
2012-04-0475th58172326
2012-03-10125th310171826
2012-01-2892nd126303133
2011-12-2852nd926293637
2011-12-1044th215242630
2011-11-2694th610122637
2011-10-2625th26172126
2011-10-1944th314172635
2011-10-0525th1671026
2011-09-2834th1416172628
2011-09-17163rd515262734
2011-07-23163rd413262731
2011-05-2833rd56262732
2011-05-18213rd2324262830
2011-03-0573rd37263235
2011-02-0965th38212426
2011-01-1942nd1526283435
2011-01-0513rd1322263536
2011-01-0144th520252635
2010-12-1854th217182632
2010-12-0132nd726272930
2010-11-2054th723242631
2010-11-0354th1517212635
2010-10-1612nd1626313335
2010-10-1333rd1024262834
2010-10-0243rd1318263134
2010-09-1833rd1015262936
2010-09-0823rd118263335
2010-09-0153rd115262936
2010-08-1454th619222635
2010-07-28124th13232628
2010-06-1624th58152634
2010-06-0954th16172636
2010-05-22—5th68192026