In Montana Cash under the 5/37 · Apr 2010 – May 2014 rules — 428 draws, 5 from 1–37 (an earlier era).
53times drawn · chance expected 58 −0.68σ
8draws waiting · a wait this long: 36% for any number
8.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.4
26longest completed wait · 75% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 53 times in 428 draws against 57.8 expected, −0.68σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 53 times in 428 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 36 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 37. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/37 tonight whatever it did last week.