Number 23

In Montana Cash under the 5/37 · Apr 2010 – May 2014 rules — 428 draws, 5 from 1–37 (an earlier era).

62times drawn · chance expected 58 +0.59σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.4

33longest completed wait · 44% chance of one at least that long

23 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 62 times in 428 draws against 57.8 expected, +0.59σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 23, draw by draw

Drawn 62 times in 428 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 33 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 23 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 1.1
2nd smallest8 · chance 8.4
3rd smallest19 · chance 22.1
4th smallest29 · chance 22.7
5th smallest5 · chance 7.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 6.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

28 1 8 16 26 3

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 36 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 23 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 37. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 23 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-05-10	18	4th	13 18 21 23 37
2014-03-08	4	3rd	3 16 23 28 36
2014-02-22	1	3rd	1 17 23 26 37
2014-02-19	5	3rd	8 16

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 23 is drawn with probability 5/37 tonight whatever it did last week.

2012-09-26	4	3rd	15 20 23 25 26
2012-09-12	12	2nd	9 23 26 30 35
2012-08-01	1	4th	5 7 17 23 27
2012-07-28	13	2nd	2 23 26 36 37
2012-06-13	1	2nd	22 23 29 32 33
2012-06-09	2	5th	1 7 15 21 23
2012-06-02	8	2nd	18 23 24 32 35
2012-05-05	2	4th	15 16 22 23 33
2012-04-28	6	3rd	3 5 23 29 34
2012-04-07	1	4th	4 5 11 23 33
2012-04-04	1	4th	5 8 17 23 26
2012-03-31	31	2nd	3 23 27 28 31
2011-12-14	10	3rd	16 19 23 24 37
2011-11-09	5	4th	10 13 20 23 30
2011-10-22	4	4th	2 8 21 23 29
2011-10-08	8	4th	10 13 18 23 33
2011-09-10	20	3rd	1 9 23 28 33
2011-07-02	2	4th	7 13 17 23 32
2011-06-25	11	3rd	5 16 23 31 33
2011-05-18	8	1st	23 24 26 28 30
2011-04-20	5	4th	1 12 15 23 28
2011-04-02	1	4th	9 13 22 23 36
2011-03-30	9	3rd	16 20 23 25 27
2011-02-26	1	5th	12 14 18 21 23
2011-02-23	8	3rd	19 20 23 30 36
2011-01-26	13	3rd	4 18 23 31 36
2010-12-11	6	4th	8 10 19 23 28
2010-11-20	1	2nd	7 23 24 26 31
2010-11-17	1	4th	3 8 10 23 29
2010-11-13	1	3rd	12 14 23 25 29
2010-11-10	3	4th	1 5 19 23 35
2010-10-30	25	3rd	1 8 23 28 32
2010-08-04	2	4th	11 19 20 23 32
2010-07-28	21	3rd	1 3 23 26 28
2010-05-15	4	4th	2 14 18 23 25
2010-05-01	6	5th	1 7 10 21 23
2010-04-10	1	4th	7 8 11 23 30
2010-04-07	—	3rd	21 22 23 30 34