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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/0 · Nov 2022 – Sep 2025 rules — 296 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 43 times in 296 draws against 33.8 expected, +1.68σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 43 times in 296 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 0.8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | 3 | 1st | 2132833 |
| 2025-08-21 | 9 | 1st | 2101723 |
| 2025-07-21 | 4 | 1st | 2222427 |
| 2025-07-07 | 9 | 1st | 292230 |
| 2025-06-05 | 2 | 1st | 2101217 |
| 2025-05-29 | 2 | 1st | 242131 |
| 2025-05-22 | 4 | 1st | 281234 |
| 2025-05-08 | 4 | 1st | 2121432 |
| 2025-04-24 | 18 | 1st | 292332 |
| 2025-02-20 | 3 | 1st | 2141827 |
| 2025-02-10 | 3 | 1st | 2222631 |
| 2025-01-30 | 2 | 1st | 292025 |
| 2025-01-23 | 26 | 2nd | 121525 |
| 2024-10-24 | 14 | 2nd | 12529 |
| 2024-09-05 | 1 | 1st | 281930 |
| 2024-09-02 | 2 | 1st | 2162631 |
| 2024-08-26 | 5 | 2nd | 123035 |
| 2024-08-08 | 13 | 1st | 2162127 |
| 2024-06-24 | 1 | 1st | 2192027 |
| 2024-06-20 | 13 | 1st | 271030 |
| 2024-05-06 | 4 | 1st | 2142331 |
| 2024-04-22 | 6 | 1st | 271521 |
| 2024-04-01 | 13 | 1st | 25712 |
| 2024-02-15 | 5 | 1st | 25620 |
| 2024-01-29 | 17 | 1st | 2303335 |
| 2023-11-30 | 2 | 2nd | 12621 |
| 2023-11-23 | 18 | 1st | 242129 |
| 2023-09-21 | 1 | 1st | 261826 |
| 2023-09-18 | 1 | 1st | 292634 |
| 2023-09-14 | 2 | 2nd | 121030 |
| 2023-09-07 | 5 | 1st | 2153235 |
| 2023-08-21 | 10 | 1st | 26816 |
| 2023-07-17 | 1 | 1st | 2103035 |
| 2023-07-13 | 9 | 1st | 291532 |
| 2023-06-12 | 2 | 1st | 272326 |
| 2023-06-05 | 1 | 1st | 251532 |
| 2023-06-01 | 1 | 1st | 2172029 |
| 2023-05-29 | 10 | 1st | 2222833 |
| 2023-04-24 | 10 | 1st | 2172235 |
| 2023-03-20 | 9 | 1st | 2101733 |
| 2023-02-16 | 16 | 1st | 241016 |
| 2022-12-22 | 7 | 1st | 262026 |
| 2022-11-28 | — | 1st | 272129 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.