Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/0 · Nov 2022 – Sep 2025 rules — 296 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 39 times in 296 draws against 33.8 expected, +0.94σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 39 times in 296 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-04 | 9 | 1st | 461033 |
| 2025-08-04 | 1 | 1st | 451016 |
| 2025-07-31 | 4 | 1st | 4102429 |
| 2025-07-17 | 14 | 2nd | 14733 |
| 2025-05-29 | 1 | 2nd | 242131 |
| 2025-05-26 | 2 | 1st | 483035 |
| 2025-05-19 | 34 | 1st | 4101629 |
| 2025-01-20 | 5 | 1st | 481925 |
| 2025-01-02 | 6 | 1st | 4102527 |
| 2024-12-12 | 1 | 1st | 481718 |
| 2024-12-09 | 21 | 1st | 4252733 |
| 2024-09-26 | 11 | 1st | 4152734 |
| 2024-08-19 | 1 | 1st | 452533 |
| 2024-08-15 | 3 | 1st | 45919 |
| 2024-08-05 | 11 | 2nd | 342129 |
| 2024-06-27 | 4 | 1st | 482225 |
| 2024-06-13 | 1 | 1st | 491034 |
| 2024-06-10 | 3 | 1st | 462933 |
| 2024-05-30 | 1 | 1st | 481931 |
| 2024-05-27 | 4 | 1st | 451227 |
| 2024-05-13 | 11 | 1st | 4131417 |
| 2024-04-04 | 21 | 1st | 4143134 |
| 2024-01-22 | 11 | 1st | 4111520 |
| 2023-12-14 | 3 | 1st | 45713 |
| 2023-12-04 | 3 | 2nd | 14510 |
| 2023-11-23 | 10 | 2nd | 242129 |
| 2023-10-19 | 2 | 1st | 461026 |
| 2023-10-12 | 9 | 1st | 4101123 |
| 2023-09-11 | 10 | 1st |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2023-08-07 | 9 | 1st | 481228 |
| 2023-07-06 | 19 | 1st | 4152629 |
| 2023-05-01 | 4 | 1st | 4112729 |
| 2023-04-17 | 10 | 1st | 491125 |
| 2023-03-13 | 3 | 1st | 492631 |
| 2023-03-02 | 4 | 2nd | 34814 |
| 2023-02-16 | 14 | 2nd | 241016 |
| 2022-12-29 | 3 | 1st | 45620 |
| 2022-12-19 | 4 | 1st | 4192633 |
| 2022-12-05 | — | 1st | 462132 |