In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 · since May 2025 rules — 515 draws, 5 from 1–49.
65times drawn · chance expected 53 +1.81σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 81% for any number
7.7average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
44longest completed wait · 47% chance of one at least that long
10 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 65 times in 515 draws against 52.6 expected, +1.81σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
10
Number 10, draw by draw
Drawn 65 times in 515 draws · average wait 7.7 draws · longest completed wait 44 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 0.2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.