In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 · since May 2025 rules — 514 draws, 5 from 1–49.
49times drawn · chance expected 52 −0.50σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 58% for any number
10.3average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
44longest completed wait · 38% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 49 times in 514 draws against 52.4 expected, −0.50σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 49 times in 514 draws · average wait 10.3 draws · longest completed wait 44 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 0.8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.