In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 · since May 2025 rules — 515 draws, 5 from 1–49.
70times drawn · chance expected 53 +2.54σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
7.4average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8
28longest completed wait · 98% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 70 times in 515 draws against 52.6 expected, +2.54σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 70 times in 515 draws · average wait 7.4 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.