In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
16times drawn · chance expected 17 −0.30σ
11draws waiting · a wait this long: 35% for any number
10.6average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
41longest completed wait · 20% chance of one at least that long
30 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 16 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.30σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
30
Number 30, draw by draw
Drawn 16 times in 172 draws · average wait 10.6 draws · longest completed wait 41 · waiting 11 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.