Number 28

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

18times drawn · chance expected 17 +0.20σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 81% for any number

9.5average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

29longest completed wait · 60% chance of one at least that long

28 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 18 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 28, draw by draw

Drawn 18 times in 172 draws · average wait 9.5 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 28 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 0.6
2nd smallest1 · chance 3.5
3rd smallest9 · chance 6.9
4th smallest6 · chance 5.5
5th smallest1 · chance 1.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

19 43 7 24 29 30

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 28 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 28 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1999-01-01	1	3rd	11 19 28 43 48
1998-12-29	6	4th	3 5 7 28 35
1998-12-08	1	4th	1 11 25 28 35
1998-12-04	5	3rd	7 16

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 28 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.