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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 17 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.05σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 17 times in 172 draws · average wait 10.4 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 37 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 10 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 37 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 37 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 37 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 1998-08-25 | 29 | 4th | 227333744 |
| 1998-05-15 | 1 | 2nd | 337414248 |
| 1998-05-12 | 15 | 4th | 1420283739 |
| 1998-03-20 | 4 | 4th | 1518193739 |
| 1998-03-06 | 1 | 3rd | 234374142 |
| 1998-03-03 | 23 | 4th | 2131333742 |
| 1997-10-17 | 7 | 4th | 2234353745 |
| 1997-08-29 | 9 | 4th | 918243742 |
| 1997-06-27 | 9 | 3rd | 13374246 |
| 1997-04-25 | 12 | 5th | 1231323437 |
| 1997-01-31 | 16 | 5th | 811132037 |
| 1996-10-11 | 2 | 3rd | 223374050 |
| 1996-09-27 | — | 4th | 825353748 |