In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
22times drawn · chance expected 17 +1.22σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 81% for any number
8.0average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
24longest completed wait · 86% chance of one at least that long
11 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 22 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, +1.22σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
11
Number 11, draw by draw
Drawn 22 times in 172 draws · average wait 8.0 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.