Number 10

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

17times drawn · chance expected 17 −0.05σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 53% for any number

9.8average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

26longest completed wait · 70% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 17 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.05σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 17 times in 172 draws · average wait 9.8 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 7.3
2nd smallest9 · chance 7.1
3rd smallest3 · chance 2.3
4th smallest0 · chance 0.3
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 4 6 14 17 22

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-12-18	11	1st	10 21 25 34 48
1998-11-10	6	2nd	3 10 17 23 35
1998-10-20	18	3rd	6 9 10 22 28
1998-08-18	1	2nd	9 10

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.