Number 12

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 17 −1.07σ

21draws waiting · a wait this long: 12% for any number

10.8average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

26longest completed wait · 59% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −1.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 21 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 172 draws · average wait 10.8 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 21 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest9 · chance 4.5
2nd smallest2 · chance 5.7
3rd smallest1 · chance 2.4
4th smallest1 · chance 0.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

16 17 21 31 43 9

Never drawn alongside 18 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-10-30	1	1st	12 16 22 38 46
1998-10-27	4	1st	12 13 17 25 43
1998-10-13	16	1st	12 24 30 43 44
1998-08-18	26	4th	9 10

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.