Number 30

In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/17 · Nov 2016 – Oct 2024 rules — 2,889 draws, 4 from 1–31 (an earlier era).

158times drawn · chance expected 373 −11.92σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 87% for any number

8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

42longest completed wait · 42% chance of one at least that long

30 deviates beyond what chance explains for a pool of 31

Drawn 158 times in 2,889 draws against 372.8 expected, −11.92σ. It passes even the threshold tightened for testing every number at once. Read the draw-by-draw history below before reading anything into it — and it still says nothing about the next draw.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 158 times in 2,889 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 42 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest10 · chance 15.8
4th smallest148 · chance 142.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 15.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

16 21 20 2 18 24

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 30 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 31. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2024-10-13	1	4th	12 14 25 30
2024-10-12	8	4th	9 22 24 30
2024-10-04	8	4th	2 3 19 30
2024-09-26	16	4th	7 21 28 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 4/31 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-03-29	2	4th	2 15 18 30
2024-03-27	8	4th	16 19 27 30
2024-03-19	15	4th	3 8 20 30
2024-03-04	7	4th	1 9 18 30
2024-02-26	18	4th	16 24 28 30
2024-02-08	10	4th	12 16 26 30
2024-01-29	4	4th	5 11 29 30
2024-01-25	7	4th	20 24 28 30
2024-01-18	8	4th	14 18 21 30
2024-01-10	9	4th	15 20 27 30
2024-01-01	3	4th	11 12 20 30
2023-12-29	2	4th	6 14 25 30
2023-12-27	8	4th	10 14 23 30
2023-12-19	2	3rd	10 11 30 31
2023-12-17	1	4th	1 5 16 30
2023-12-16	19	4th	16 17 29 30
2023-11-27	9	4th	8 21 26 30
2023-11-18	5	4th	2 25 26 30
2023-11-13	8	4th	10 17 21 30
2023-11-05	2	4th	18 22 29 30
2023-11-03	1	4th	3 16 26 30
2023-11-02	9	4th	4 5 6 30
2023-10-24	4	4th	2 21 29 30
2023-10-20	20	4th	13 20 25 30
2023-09-30	16	4th	4 23 26 30
2023-09-14	8	4th	2 12 27 30
2023-09-06	4	4th	1 13 22 30
2023-09-02	8	4th	7 9 25 30
2023-08-25	8	4th	4 5 16 30
2023-08-17	3	4th	11 26 27 30
2023-08-14	9	4th	13 24 26 30
2023-08-05	13	4th	2 5 20 30
2023-07-23	11	4th	11 14 20 30
2023-07-12	6	4th	6 17 29 30
2023-07-06	3	4th	2 20 28 30
2023-07-03	3	4th	1 2 14 30
2023-06-30	4	4th	3 19 26 30
2023-06-26	20	4th	10 19 29 30
2023-06-06	4	4th	3 5 15 30
2023-06-02	2	4th	2 13 15 30
2023-05-31	12	3rd	12 18 30 31
2023-05-19	4	4th	8 18 19 30
2023-05-15	11	4th	19 20 26 30
2023-05-04	11	4th	5 6 27 30
2023-04-23	14	4th	12 20 21 30
2023-04-09	4	4th	5 18 24 30
2023-04-05	2	4th	10 20 29 30
2023-04-03	1	4th	1 9 16 30
2023-04-02	6	4th	4 8 26 30
2023-03-27	4	4th	12 18 23 30
2023-03-23	10	4th	18 19 24 30
2023-03-13	5	4th	4 21 27 30
2023-03-08	2	4th	6 10 22 30
2023-03-06	22	3rd	16 24 30 31
2023-02-12	3	4th	6 8 24 30
2023-02-09	5	4th	3 14 18 30
2023-02-04	12	3rd	12 24 30 31
2023-01-23	3	4th	1 20 21 30
2023-01-20	15	4th	2 16 19 30
2023-01-05	8	4th	6 18 24 30
2022-12-28	6	4th	1 25 26 30
2022-12-22	1	4th	14 15 26 30
2022-12-21	2	4th	14 19 28 30
2022-12-19	6	4th	3 14 24 30
2022-12-13	2	4th	2 16 27 30
2022-12-11	12	4th	21 25 28 30
2022-11-29	13	4th	4 5 17 30
2022-11-16	1	4th	5 7 29 30
2022-11-15	3	4th	18 22 23 30
2022-11-12	4	4th	8 17 20 30
2022-11-08	5	4th	15 16 19 30
2022-11-03	9	4th	1 15 21 30
2022-10-25	4	4th	9 13 20 30
2022-10-21	1	4th	10 16 22 30
2022-10-20	5	4th	21 26 28 30
2022-10-15	5	4th	12 13 24 30
2022-10-10	12	4th	1 4 27 30
2022-09-28	9	4th	21 25 29 30
2022-09-19	2	4th	3 10 17 30
2022-09-17	33	4th	3 6 18 30
2022-08-15	6	4th	16 17 24 30
2022-08-09	1	4th	11 21 25 30
2022-08-08	3	4th	4 16 17 30
2022-08-05	20	4th	9 21 24 30
2022-07-16	3	4th	13 16 28 30
2022-07-13	4	4th	7 11 21 30
2022-07-09	10	4th	18 21 27 30
2022-06-29	4	4th	6 8 21 30
2022-06-25	25	4th	11 20 29 30
2022-05-31	19	4th	15 17 18 30
2022-05-12	23	4th	11 12 27 30
2022-04-19	8	4th	16 25 28 30
2022-04-11	8	4th	2 9 20 30
2022-04-03	19	4th	10 13 21 30
2022-03-15	7	4th	4 13 23 30
2022-03-08	1	3rd	9 16 30 31
2022-03-07	5	4th	5 6 23 30
2022-03-02	17	4th	1 4 18 30
2022-02-13	6	4th	2 9 14 30
2022-02-07	6	4th	13 27 28 30
2022-02-01	3	4th	5 16 22 30
2022-01-29	17	4th	2 6 20 30
2022-01-12	8	3rd	8 10 30 31
2022-01-04	3	4th	12 17 18 30
2022-01-01	3	4th	1 9 25 30
2021-12-29	1	3rd	1 13 30 31
2021-12-28	10	4th	21 23 26 30
2021-12-18	8	3rd	10 11 30 31
2021-12-10	7	4th	2 8 20 30
2021-12-03	10	4th	11 14 29 30
2021-11-23	7	4th	11 15 25 30
2021-11-16	7	4th	7 24 25 30
2021-11-09	5	4th	1 19 26 30
2021-11-04	6	4th	6 25 28 30
2021-10-29	24	4th	2 16 23 30
2021-10-05	3	4th	1 9 11 30
2021-10-02	4	4th	10 12 23 30
2021-09-28	3	3rd	10 20 30 31
2021-09-25	2	4th	3 4 27 30
2021-09-23	9	4th	2 4 14 30
2021-09-14	7	4th	9 18 25 30
2021-09-07	1	4th	16 27 29 30
2021-09-06	7	4th	4 5 25 30
2021-08-30	3	4th	11 12 23 30
2021-08-27	9	4th	8 9 10 30
2021-08-18	42	4th	8 16 23 30
2021-07-07	6	4th	21 25 29 30
2021-07-01	8	4th	9 13 14 30
2021-06-23	32	4th	12 13 29 30
2021-05-22	5	4th	6 7 28 30
2021-05-17	8	4th	1 16 20 30
2021-05-09	6	4th	7 16 28 30
2021-05-03	5	4th	6 19 24 30
2021-04-28	—	4th	5 11 17 30