Number 4

In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/17 · Nov 2016 – Oct 2024 rules — 2,889 draws, 4 from 1–31 (an earlier era).

426times drawn · chance expected 373 +2.95σ

6draws waiting · a wait this long: 50% for any number

6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

43longest completed wait · 72% chance of one at least that long

4 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 31 numbers

Drawn 426 times in 2,889 draws against 372.8 expected, +2.95σ. Testing all 31 numbers at once means about 0.3 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 3.2e-4 and this does not pass it.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 426 times in 2,889 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 43 · waiting 6 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest308 · chance 306.9
2nd smallest114 · chance 110.5
3rd smallest4 · chance 8.5
4th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 42.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 8 14 9 20 3

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 30 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 31. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2024-10-09	9	2nd	2 4 8 23
2024-09-30	10	1st	4 20 23 27
2024-09-20	5	2nd	1 4 7 22
2024-09-15	6	1st	4 8 12 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 4/31 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-05-24	2	1st	4 19 21 31
2024-05-22	20	1st	4 6 8 22
2024-05-02	16	2nd	2 4 24 30
2024-04-16	6	1st	4 9 27 31
2024-04-10	9	2nd	2 4 5 13
2024-04-01	8	1st	4 5 9 13
2024-03-24	4	1st	4 15 21 27
2024-03-20	4	1st	4 6 16 28
2024-03-16	2	1st	4 5 19 22
2024-03-14	1	1st	4 7 13 28
2024-03-13	1	1st	4 12 18 25
2024-03-12	2	1st	4 17 19 29
2024-03-10	2	1st	4 20 28 31
2024-03-08	1	1st	4 9 20 26
2024-03-07	5	1st	4 15 25 28
2024-03-02	10	2nd	1 4 14 17
2024-02-21	6	1st	4 20 25 28
2024-02-15	3	1st	4 5 13 27
2024-02-12	12	1st	4 8 18 24
2024-01-31	11	2nd	1 4 5 31
2024-01-20	4	2nd	2 4 14 26
2024-01-16	2	1st	4 21 24 28
2024-01-14	6	1st	4 8 26 27
2024-01-08	6	1st	4 5 16 23
2024-01-02	18	1st	4 14 17 21
2023-12-15	5	1st	4 8 23 26
2023-12-10	4	1st	4 19 20 22
2023-12-06	12	1st	4 14 16 22
2023-11-24	4	1st	4 11 19 29
2023-11-20	1	1st	4 5 25 31
2023-11-19	2	2nd	1 4 15 18
2023-11-17	15	1st	4 12 22 27
2023-11-02	12	1st	4 5 6 30
2023-10-21	5	1st	4 9 16 20
2023-10-16	6	1st	4 10 20 31
2023-10-10	5	1st	4 9 12 17
2023-10-05	3	1st	4 5 14 17
2023-10-02	2	1st	4 9 18 28
2023-09-30	2	1st	4 23 26 30
2023-09-28	1	2nd	1 4 11 16
2023-09-27	2	1st	4 17 28 31
2023-09-25	13	2nd	3 4 5 17
2023-09-12	18	1st	4 16 26 28
2023-08-25	1	1st	4 5 16 30
2023-08-24	3	1st	4 9 10 26
2023-08-21	3	1st	4 6 10 27
2023-08-18	5	1st	4 5 18 26
2023-08-13	2	2nd	3 4 11 29
2023-08-11	8	3rd	2 3 4 23
2023-08-03	17	1st	4 10 17 29
2023-07-17	2	1st	4 12 15 21
2023-07-15	6	1st	4 15 24 31
2023-07-09	11	1st	4 10 28 29
2023-06-28	9	1st	4 9 11 19
2023-06-19	2	1st	4 6 19 28
2023-06-17	1	1st	4 10 12 27
2023-06-16	20	1st	4 11 15 27
2023-05-27	7	1st	4 5 9 18
2023-05-20	4	2nd	3 4 9 25
2023-05-16	4	1st	4 13 24 29
2023-05-12	14	1st	4 8 12 21
2023-04-28	2	1st	4 14 20 31
2023-04-26	5	2nd	1 4 19 28
2023-04-21	11	1st	4 21 22 28
2023-04-10	6	2nd	1 4 10 20
2023-04-04	2	1st	4 5 26 28
2023-04-02	9	1st	4 8 26 30
2023-03-24	2	1st	4 11 15 31
2023-03-22	9	1st	4 11 19 26
2023-03-13	2	1st	4 21 27 30
2023-03-11	6	2nd	2 4 18 23
2023-03-05	3	1st	4 9 13 22
2023-03-02	9	1st	4 5 9 25
2023-02-21	1	1st	4 12 18 27
2023-02-20	2	1st	4 15 25 31
2023-02-18	23	1st	4 16 22 23
2023-01-26	4	2nd	2 4 20 27
2023-01-22	15	1st	4 5 11 22
2023-01-07	7	2nd	2 4 13 14
2022-12-31	1	2nd	1 4 7 9
2022-12-30	13	2nd	3 4 16 27
2022-12-17	11	1st	4 9 22 24
2022-12-06	6	1st	4 11 19 24
2022-11-30	1	2nd	2 4 5 24
2022-11-29	11	1st	4 5 17 30
2022-11-18	7	2nd	3 4 15 29
2022-11-11	12	1st	4 9 13 31
2022-10-30	11	2nd	3 4 11 27
2022-10-19	6	1st	4 11 22 31
2022-10-13	3	1st	4 12 20 23
2022-10-10	2	2nd	1 4 27 30
2022-10-08	2	1st	4 11 12 21
2022-10-06	11	2nd	3 4 17 25
2022-09-25	3	1st	4 20 26 27
2022-09-22	2	1st	4 5 7 17
2022-09-20	7	1st	4 5 6 17
2022-09-13	4	1st	4 15 20 27
2022-09-09	12	1st	4 6 16 26
2022-08-28	1	1st	4 5 11 23
2022-08-27	7	1st	4 8 20 24
2022-08-20	6	1st	4 8 9 14
2022-08-14	6	1st	4 10 20 31
2022-08-08	10	1st	4 16 17 30
2022-07-29	43	1st	4 9 20 22
2022-06-16	21	2nd	3 4 12 23
2022-05-26	5	1st	4 6 12 23
2022-05-21	3	1st	4 9 15 24
2022-05-18	20	2nd	3 4 9 22
2022-04-28	6	2nd	3 4 7 24
2022-04-22	1	1st	4 5 14 29
2022-04-21	6	1st	4 8 14 25
2022-04-15	1	2nd	2 4 11 21
2022-04-14	6	1st	4 23 24 28
2022-04-08	6	1st	4 16 19 22
2022-04-02	5	3rd	1 2 4 21
2022-03-28	2	2nd	2 4 24 26
2022-03-26	5	1st	4 6 21 29
2022-03-21	6	2nd	2 4 15 27
2022-03-15	2	1st	4 13 23 30
2022-03-13	1	2nd	3 4 21 27
2022-03-12	1	1st	4 18 26 28
2022-03-11	6	1st	4 11 22 31
2022-03-05	2	3rd	1 2 4 22
2022-03-03	1	1st	4 14 18 22
2022-03-02	8	2nd	1 4 18 30
2022-02-22	5	1st	4 12 14 15
2022-02-17	1	1st	4 23 25 28
2022-02-16	7	1st	4 24 26 28
2022-02-09	1	1st	4 16 19 26
2022-02-08	11	2nd	3 4 22 29
2022-01-28	3	1st	4 8 15 20
2022-01-25	8	1st	4 22 25 29
2022-01-17	8	1st	4 17 24 27
2022-01-09	6	2nd	1 4 9 20
2022-01-03	4	1st	4 7 10 21
2021-12-30	3	2nd	3 4 19 25
2021-12-27	3	1st	4 11 16 18
2021-12-24	8	1st	4 9 16 23
2021-12-16	7	1st	4 10 15 19
2021-12-09	7	1st	4 7 23 27
2021-12-02	12	2nd	3 4 6 16
2021-11-20	14	1st	4 14 15 20
2021-11-06	1	2nd	1 4 8 19
2021-11-05	20	1st	4 9 12 20
2021-10-16	16	1st	4 8 23 28
2021-09-30	5	1st	4 6 12 21
2021-09-25	2	2nd	3 4 27 30
2021-09-23	1	2nd	2 4 14 30
2021-09-22	1	1st	4 8 9 10
2021-09-21	4	2nd	2 4 6 18
2021-09-17	11	1st	4 11 17 20
2021-09-06	6	1st	4 5 25 30
2021-08-31	7	1st	4 13 14 25
2021-08-24	7	1st	4 5 18 24
2021-08-17	18	1st	4 6 13 17
2021-07-30	5	1st	4 14 16 18
2021-07-25	37	1st	4 6 11 12
2021-06-18	4	1st	4 6 26 27
2021-06-14	1	2nd	1 4 15 24
2021-06-13	10	1st	4 6 15 24
2021-06-03	5	1st	4 5 17 23
2021-05-29	2	1st	4 5 25 27
2021-05-27	2	2nd	3 4 23 26
2021-05-25	5	1st	4 8 20 24
2021-05-20	6	1st	4 12 19 29
2021-05-14	1	1st	4 20 26 28
2021-05-13	21	1st	4 13 16 24
2021-04-22	2	2nd	2 4 21 26
2021-04-20	4	1st	4 9 24 25
2021-04-16	34	2nd	3 4 10 16
2021-03-13	1	1st	4 9 12 21
2021-03-12	1	2nd	1 4 6 17
2021-03-11	3	1st	4 13 26 28
2021-03-08	4	1st	4 7 13 18
2021-03-04	5	1st	4 11 20 24
2021-02-27	7	1st	4 13 17 27
2021-02-20	3	2nd	3 4 14 15
2021-02-17	6	1st	4 8 17 26
2021-02-11	21	1st	4 5 16 21
2021-01-21	4	2nd	1 4 5 17
2021-01-17	16	1st	4 6 10 17
2021-01-01	4	1st	4 11 20 24
2020-12-28	2	1st	4 6 12 18
2020-12-26	2	1st	4 6 14 19
2020-12-24	10	1st	4 6 13 26
2020-12-14	2	1st	4 10 11 17
2020-12-12	7	1st	4 5 11 15
2020-12-05	2	2nd	1 4 7 16
2020-12-03	6	1st	4 21 23 26
2020-11-27	2	1st	4 13 20 28
2020-11-25	5	1st	4 18 22 26
2020-11-20	18	2nd	2 4 13 14
2020-11-02	6	1st	4 9 14 24
2020-10-27	13	1st	4 6 9 27
2020-10-14	11	1st	4 9 20 21
2020-10-03	19	1st	4 9 18 20
2020-09-14	11	2nd	2 4 11 16
2020-09-03	6	1st	4 7 9 21
2020-08-28	7	1st	4 16 18 21
2020-08-21	4	1st	4 16 18 20
2020-08-17	3	1st	4 17 20 28
2020-08-14	15	2nd	3 4 9 22
2020-07-30	11	1st	4 8 18 19
2020-07-19	1	1st	4 10 21 24
2020-07-18	3	2nd	2 4 21 24
2020-07-15	11	2nd	1 4 16 18
2020-07-04	21	2nd	3 4 25 28
2020-06-13	28	1st	4 12 23 24
2020-05-16	15	1st	4 9 19 21
2020-05-01	16	1st	4 8 18 21
2020-04-15	14	1st	4 10 11 22
2020-04-01	6	1st	4 5 21 28
2020-03-26	8	1st	4 20 24 28
2020-03-18	5	2nd	3 4 23 27
2020-03-13	3	1st	4 10 12 17
2020-03-10	3	1st	4 19 26 27
2020-03-07	1	1st	4 7 10 24
2020-03-06	11	2nd	1 4 19 25
2020-02-24	7	2nd	2 4 6 21
2020-02-17	3	1st	4 13 14 21
2020-02-14	1	1st	4 8 26 27
2020-02-13	7	1st	4 6 8 14
2020-02-06	20	1st	4 7 15 26
2020-01-17	3	1st	4 17 20 24
2020-01-14	24	1st	4 9 13 20
2019-12-21	18	2nd	3 4 8 13
2019-12-03	3	1st	4 6 24 27
2019-11-30	3	1st	4 8 13 16
2019-11-27	3	2nd	2 4 5 14
2019-11-24	16	2nd	3 4 13 20
2019-11-08	1	1st	4 5 6 22
2019-11-07	6	2nd	2 4 15 25
2019-11-01	3	1st	4 18 19 23
2019-10-29	3	1st	4 5 21 28
2019-10-26	15	1st	4 11 18 20
2019-10-11	6	2nd	2 4 5 12
2019-10-05	7	1st	4 14 22 28
2019-09-28	2	1st	4 18 20 22
2019-09-26	4	1st	4 7 22 25
2019-09-22	3	1st	4 6 8 10
2019-09-19	3	1st	4 8 20 24
2019-09-16	10	1st	4 6 12 16
2019-09-06	18	1st	4 8 19 26
2019-08-19	1	1st	4 8 11 15
2019-08-18	28	2nd	3 4 10 11
2019-07-21	2	2nd	1 4 7 24
2019-07-19	1	1st	4 14 16 28
2019-07-18	2	1st	4 8 14 21
2019-07-16	7	1st	4 7 11 18
2019-07-09	6	1st	4 16 17 21
2019-07-03	4	1st	4 13 19 28
2019-06-29	2	1st	4 11 20 24
2019-06-27	6	2nd	2 4 14 24
2019-06-21	7	1st	4 7 10 19
2019-06-14	1	1st	4 7 18 27
2019-06-13	3	1st	4 5 7 8
2019-06-10	7	1st	4 16 18 19
2019-06-03	5	1st	4 15 21 24
2019-05-29	10	2nd	3 4 9 23
2019-05-19	12	2nd	2 4 22 28
2019-05-07	9	2nd	3 4 25 28
2019-04-28	2	1st	4 21 25 26
2019-04-26	6	1st	4 21 25 27
2019-04-20	2	2nd	1 4 10 19
2019-04-18	3	1st	4 12 23 25
2019-04-15	2	1st	4 14 23 25
2019-04-13	7	2nd	1 4 23 24
2019-04-06	23	1st	4 6 10 12
2019-03-14	7	1st	4 8 9 27
2019-03-07	10	1st	4 10 11 26
2019-02-25	1	2nd	1 4 6 17
2019-02-24	3	1st	4 5 8 12
2019-02-21	1	2nd	3 4 7 22
2019-02-20	5	1st	4 6 23 28
2019-02-15	2	2nd	2 4 9 13
2019-02-13	12	2nd	1 4 11 19
2019-02-01	6	1st	4 5 17 22
2019-01-26	5	2nd	3 4 5 7
2019-01-21	3	1st	4 8 10 17
2019-01-18	9	1st	4 5 14 20
2019-01-09	2	2nd	3 4 18 19
2019-01-07	14	1st	4 12 16 26
2018-12-24	16	2nd	3 4 14 25
2018-12-08	7	1st	4 17 20 28
2018-12-01	3	3rd	1 3 4 17
2018-11-28	3	1st	4 9 17 24
2018-11-25	15	1st	4 15 20 27
2018-11-10	13	1st	4 14 17 19
2018-10-28	24	2nd	1 4 15 26
2018-10-04	9	1st	4 17 18 19
2018-09-25	3	1st	4 5 9 14
2018-09-22	5	1st	4 13 20 24
2018-09-17	3	1st	4 8 18 22
2018-09-14	3	1st	4 12 24 26
2018-09-11	6	1st	4 10 15 22
2018-09-05	11	1st	4 16 18 22
2018-08-25	4	1st	4 5 6 19
2018-08-21	4	1st	4 7 8 20
2018-08-17	16	1st	4 5 14 21
2018-08-01	3	1st	4 17 23 28
2018-07-29	2	1st	4 6 24 25
2018-07-27	20	1st	4 8 16 20
2018-07-07	1	2nd	3 4 24 28
2018-07-06	3	1st	4 5 12 22
2018-07-03	5	2nd	2 4 13 16
2018-06-28	1	1st	4 14 26 27
2018-06-27	8	1st	4 18 23 24
2018-06-19	20	2nd	3 4 14 17
2018-05-30	4	2nd	3 4 6 16
2018-05-26	11	2nd	3 4 17 21
2018-05-15	10	1st	4 8 11 27
2018-05-05	1	1st	4 7 20 21
2018-05-04	4	1st	4 8 13 18
2018-04-30	22	1st	4 6 7 19
2018-04-08	6	2nd	3 4 11 12
2018-04-02	4	1st	4 5 13 16
2018-03-29	3	1st	4 15 22 23
2018-03-26	2	1st	4 9 14 26
2018-03-24	1	1st	4 5 12 27
2018-03-23	11	1st	4 8 10 13
2018-03-12	9	1st	4 11 15 25
2018-03-03	4	2nd	1 4 9 15
2018-02-27	3	1st	4 10 13 28
2018-02-24	8	2nd	2 4 15 22
2018-02-16	2	1st	4 5 6 27
2018-02-14	4	2nd	3 4 19 27
2018-02-10	1	1st	4 14 17 18
2018-02-09	10	1st	4 10 15 25
2018-01-30	2	2nd	3 4 17 27
2018-01-28	9	1st	4 12 13 27
2018-01-19	3	1st	4 8 27 28
2018-01-16	26	1st	4 5 13 20
2017-12-21	14	2nd	2 4 5 26
2017-12-07	2	1st	4 6 9 13
2017-12-05	6	1st	4 9 14 20
2017-11-29	6	1st	4 8 14 15
2017-11-23	6	1st	4 5 15 22
2017-11-17	5	1st	4 14 15 22
2017-11-12	1	1st	4 6 8 17
2017-11-11	7	2nd	2 4 18 19
2017-11-04	1	2nd	1 4 11 12
2017-11-03	2	1st	4 9 18 21
2017-11-01	2	1st	4 8 20 27
2017-10-30	1	2nd	2 4 20 25
2017-10-29	2	1st	4 12 16 22
2017-10-27	4	1st	4 14 18 25
2017-10-23	3	2nd	1 4 7 19
2017-10-19	3	2nd	1 4 5 16
2017-10-16	3	2nd	1 4 12 19
2017-10-13	4	2nd	2 4 9 22
2017-10-09	9	1st	4 5 8 10
2017-09-29	2	1st	4 5 6 9
2017-09-27	4	2nd	3 4 18 19
2017-09-23	12	1st	4 10 12 28
2017-09-11	5	2nd	2 4 16 26
2017-09-06	1	1st	4 8 11 24
2017-09-05	14	2nd	3 4 6 9
2017-08-22	2	1st	4 6 12 23
2017-08-20	9	1st	4 13 24 26
2017-08-11	2	1st	4 7 21 26
2017-08-09	2	1st	4 14 17 26
2017-08-07	5	1st	4 7 8 17
2017-08-02	1	1st	4 15 25 27
2017-08-01	5	1st	4 14 15 26
2017-07-27	9	2nd	3 4 5 23
2017-07-18	2	1st	4 13 22 25
2017-07-16	7	2nd	3 4 8 16
2017-07-09	8	2nd	3 4 16 26
2017-07-01	5	2nd	2 4 6 10
2017-06-26	19	1st	4 6 15 21
2017-06-07	8	1st	4 15 24 28
2017-05-30	13	1st	4 6 10 14
2017-05-17	2	1st	4 5 13 23
2017-05-15	5	1st	4 8 12 13
2017-05-10	4	1st	4 11 12 24
2017-05-06	9	2nd	1 4 22 23
2017-04-27	3	1st	4 14 15 19
2017-04-24	4	1st	4 6 14 18
2017-04-20	17	2nd	2 4 15 28
2017-04-03	6	1st	4 6 19 20
2017-03-28	8	1st	4 7 20 26
2017-03-20	1	1st	4 6 9 20
2017-03-19	2	2nd	3 4 5 19
2017-03-17	30	1st	4 8 21 25
2017-02-15	1	1st	4 9 13 28
2017-02-14	7	2nd	3 4 9 22
2017-02-07	2	1st	4 8 22 27
2017-02-05	10	1st	4 8 13 16
2017-01-26	3	1st	4 10 17 22
2017-01-23	4	2nd	3 4 13 24
2017-01-19	3	1st	4 7 9 16
2017-01-16	1	1st	4 14 19 26
2017-01-15	12	1st	4 7 26 28
2017-01-03	10	1st	4 11 12 13
2016-12-24	4	2nd	2 4 5 17
2016-12-20	2	1st	4 5 17 25
2016-12-18	2	1st	4 8 21 25
2016-12-16	8	1st	4 6 22 27
2016-12-08	1	1st	4 11 12 27
2016-12-07	11	2nd	2 4 11 14
2016-11-26	4	2nd	3 4 7 12
2016-11-22	—	1st	4 10 11 26